Playoff scenarios based on the latest AP Polls (Week 8, 2018) October 18, 2018
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: Alabama, Atlanta, Auburn, Austin, B1G, Big Ten, Buckeyes, Bulldogs, Chicago, Clemson, Crimson Tide, Dallas, Florida, Fort Worth, Georgia, Houston, Hurricanes, Iowa State, Lee Corso, Longhorns, Los Angeles, Lou Holtz, LSU, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, New York, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Sam Ehlinger, San Antonio, SEC, Tennessee, Texas, USC, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia
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Week 7 in college football for the 2018 provided considerable thrills – and headaches – for fans, what with upsets abounding, especially near the top of the rankings. Unranked Tennessee taking down then-No. 17 Auburn, and unranked Virginia beating then-No. 16 Miami (Fla.) are small potatoes compared to upsets elsewhere that week.
Indeed, no fewer than four AP top ten teams went down in defeat in Week 7 of 2018. For starters, No. 17 Oregon outlasted then-No. 7 Washington, 30-27, in overtime. Unranked Michigan State toppled No. 8 Penn State on the road, 21-17. Iowa State leveraged their special night-time atmosphere to help them beat then-undefeated (and then-No. 6) West Virginia 30-14. Even more significant was No. 13 LSU pommeling then-No. 2 Georgia 36-16.
As a result of these four key upsets, Washington fell from the No. 7 ranking to No. 15. Penn State fell from No. 8 to No. 18. West Virginia fell from No. 6 to No. 13, while Georgia fell from No. 2 to No. 8.
Last year, the Bulldogs made it to the national championship game. Now, the prospect to return is in jeopardy. At least it’s October and not November, meaning there is still time to recover.
Regardless, the current AP Top Ten now suggests some very intriguing playoff possibilities. These are important for the health of college football. An all-southern/all-SEC college football championship game my thrill the faithful in the southeastern region of the country, but it turns off the rest of the country. That’s bad for business. If your sport starts to be perceived as regional in its nature, that hurts your national image, and prevents you from engaging the markets you need to be interested in order to ensure its long-term strength and viability. Alabama vs. Clemson and Alabama vs. Georgia thus saw a TV ratings decline, whereas Texas vs. USC (2005-’06) and Ohio State vs. Oregon (2014-’15) where perfect matchups to bring in robust, national audiences. Ohio State vs. Florida (2006-’07), Ohio State vs. LSU (2007-’08) and especially Ohio State vs. Miami (2002-’03) were decent-to-great matchups as well for this purpose. Alabama vs. Notre Dame (2012-’13) was good on paper, but the outcome of the game proved that it was a mismatch, with the Irish clearly being overrated at the time.
Start with a basic premise that it’s good for business when traditional powers do well. If Georgia does well, that engages the Atlanta market, which is pretty big, in case you forgot. If Notre Dame does well, it engages the Chicago and New York City markets. If USC does well, it engages the Los Angeles market. If Ohio State and Michigan do well (either or both), that engages much of the Midwestern markets, as well as the Big Ten alums who have left the Midwest for the East Coast, the South, or the West Coast. If Texas does well, it engages the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston Markets. You get the picture.
Now, back to the Week 8 Top Ten rankings from the AP poll. At No. 1 remains Alabama. Ok, fine. With Georgia knocked out of the No. 2 spot (but still in the top ten), that allows for Ohio State to take over that position. This is good for the sport. Clemson has moved a spot to No. 3, while Notre Dame has quietly moved up to the No. 4 ranking.
Just by looking at these current top four spots, if these remain unchanged and translate directly into playoff rankings, one would have a great playoff scenario to engage a critical mass of the viewing public. Alabama and Clemson would be there to keep the South’s fever pitch at maximum levels, while Ohio State and Notre Dame enjoy national audiences so as to include enough of the rest of the country as well. The Fighting Irish’s ranking this time is no wishful thinking. Thoughtful analysts concur that this 2018 ND team is much stronger and more athletic than its overrated 2012 counterpart. Fox Sports’ Colin Cowherd has gone so far as to observe that this is the best ND team since the Lou Holtz era. As ESPN’s Lee Corso would exclaim, “Yo!”
While there is no west coast team in sight in these current rankings, that is not a deal-breaker, either. There are enough Big Ten grads on the west coast to keep those markets engaged should Ohio State make it to the playoffs. The Buckeyes, in this scenario, would represent the West Coast as well as the Midwest.
Naturally, much football remains to be played, and the remainder of the top ten shall make all efforts to crack their way into the playoffs as well. Of those currently poised for such possibilities, some of them, too, offer intriguing engagement opportunities. LSU sits at No. 5 after their ripping upset victory over the Bulldogs, and are destined for a major showdown with the Crimson Tide come Nov. 3, in Baton Rouge, no less. Michigan sits at No. 6 after their big win over Wisconsin last night. If they maintain their momentum, their Nov. 24 annual grudge match with the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor could be epic.
Meanwhile, Texas has survived another test and now sits at No. 7. If QB Sam Ehlinger stays healthy, who knows how much further the Longhorns could continue to climb? This is key to note because Texas in the playoffs engages a different market than the Southeast. The beauty of Texas in the championship game is that they can theoretically engage two markets simultaneously, as a B1G team can do vis-à-vis both the Midwest and other regions. In Texas’ case, not only can a Longhorn playoff appearance pique the interest of the DFW and Houston metro areas (San Antonio and Austin don’t hurt either, as that is another combined 4 million-plus people in that mini-megalopolis), but the Southeast could vicariously join in, too.
An Oklahoma (currently No. 9) playoff appearance, while a different region than the Southeast, has a limited upside. Yes, it engages the central plains, but there is not much major population there). Best case scenario is that it will interest the OU grad transplants living in the major Texas markets. The Longhorns, thankfully, have done their part, though, in making the more market-significant team better-poised for a playoff run at this point.
This is not a swipe at the SEC, or the fans therein, for a personally love southern football and identify with the South. As someone who is concerned about the national and long-term health of college football, however, perspective must be maintained. Fans in SEC country will watch the playoffs no matter who is playing. Fans elsewhere, though, will only watch if they feel they have a stake in things; that they are being represented. We have enjoyed such perfect or near-perfect matchups in the past, such as the aforementioned Texas-USC games and the Ohio State-Oregon games, for example.
Meanwhile, more big games remain, and the way things have gone thus far, more upsets are likely to occur. Teams currently in the bottom half of the top ten could claw theyr way up with help from such theoretical upsets. After all, we’re halfway to regular season’s end, and the stakes and urgency only intensify from here. Let’s enjoy the ride, and cheer on the key wins that would help make for the best playoff matches with optimal, national appeal while we’re at it!
2012-2013 Bowl Games of High Interest December 26, 2012
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: ACC, Aggies, Alabama, Alamo, Andrew Luck, Auburn, B1G, Badgers, Baylor, BCS, Bears, Big 10, Big Ten, Big XII, Bill Snyder, Bob Stoops, Bowl, Brent Musburger, Bruins, Bulldogs, Capital One, Cardinal, Cardinals, Chick-Fil-A, CHip Kelly, Citrus, Clemson, college, conference, Cornhuskers, Cotton Bowl, Crimson Tide, Ducks, Fiesta Bowl, FIghting Irish, Florida, football, Gator, Gators, Georgia, Granddaddy, Herbie, Holiday, Hotlanta, Jerryland, Kansas State, Kevin Sumlin, Kirk Herbstreit, Kwanzaa, Lou Holtz, Louisville, LSU, Michigan, Mississippi State, national championship, NCAA, Nebraska, Nike, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, Oregon State, Outback, Pac-12, Peach, Pro Combat, Rose Bowl, SEC, Sooners, South Carolina, Southeastern, Stanford, Steve Spurrier, Sugar Bowl, Teddy Bridgewater, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, voodoo, Washington, Wildcats, Wisconsin
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As mentioned in the previous installments, I have ranked the bowl games by category, with the major criterion being level of desirability to view, partly on my end, partly on the end of the average viewer who is NOT a certifiable college football addict like yours truly!
To find a complete bowl game schedule where each game is found in order of date and time each game is to be played, go here.
This third installment is of bowl games about which I am VERY interested (as usual, all times are Eastern Standard). Happy Kwanzaa (LMAO! I’m sorry, I just can’t say that with a straight face!).
Holiday Bowl (San Diego), Thurs., Dec. 27, 9:45 PM EST
Baylor (7-5) vs. No. 17 UCLA (9-4)
My [potential] “offensive explosion” bowl game for the 2012-2013 season. To paraphrase the guys at EDSBS, what’s better in a bowl game than seeing both teams’ offensive coordinators emptying the most shameful corners of their playbook? Better yet, it pits bears vs. bruins; how often does one see that in a bowl? Just sayin’!
Alamo Bowl (San Antonio), Sat., Dec. 29, 6:45 PM
No. 23 Texas (8-4) vs. No. 13 Oregon State (9-3)
Yes, I’ll admit, I’m a bit biased. After all, I was part of the team that won the 1998 Alamo Bowl, arguably one of the more memorable games in the series. But that aside, the Alamo Bowl is always a good matchup. Is it quite as good as when it was Big Ten vs. Big XII? The realignment to a Pac-12 vs. Big XII matchup has not watered things down any, at least not yet. Remember last year’s offensive explosion between Baylor and Washington? That one is not soon to be forgotten, either. This time, the Longhorns are playing, which automatically makes it good. Granted, Oregon State is favored on paper, but do not underestimate Texas’ home field advantage, given that their campus is only a little over an hour away.
Chick-Fil-A Bowl (Atlanta), Mon., Dec., 31, 7:30 PM
No. 8 LSU (10-2) vs. No. 14 Clemson (10-2)
Nothing like closing out the old year by watching a classic SEC-ACC matchup in Hotlanta! Of course, there have been plenty of such “classic” matchups on paper over the past several years, but they have usually amounted to rather one-sided affairs in favor of the Southeastern Conference. You’ll have that. After all, not all Peach Bowls, er, Chick-Fil-A Bowls can be like the Auburn-North Carolina game back in 2001! In any event, the funny guys at EDSBS have come up with three possible scenarios of how this one will play out (all with varying degrees of probability – refer to game ranking #6). I particularly like the “LSU blowout” scenario!
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, Fla.), Tues., Jan. 1, 12:00 PM
Mississippi State (8-4) vs. No. 20 Northwestern (9-3)
My “great game that nobody is talking about,” for it pits two scrappy teams struggling for respect in their respective conferences. Better yet, it’s a very dramatic culture clash within the bowl season, for the only private school in the B1G meets, well, the “clanga-clanga” of cowbells. It also makes for an intriguing coaching matchup in one coaches favors the pass while the other favors the run. How can a viewer lose with this whole proposition?
Outback Bowl (Tampa, Fla.), Tues., Jan. 1, 1:00 PM
No. 10 South Carolina (10-2) vs. No. 18 Michigan (8-4)
The matchup is intriguing on the surface alone. One side is a traditional blue blood, figuratively and literally. They won the first ever bowl game and gave birth to the college fight song as we know it today. Oh well, and Michigan also has the most wins of any football program, ever. The other side, South Carolina, is something of a late bloomer. A relatively late joiner of the SEC, for years they had been a conference doormat prior to the Lou Holtz and especially the Steve Spurrier eras. But this game is where the newcomer will take down the old guard, should everything work out on paper. Yes, that’s a rather dry way of putting it, but if I made any allusions that the Gamecocks should bury the Wolverines underneath the pavement for some horrified archaeologists to discover a century or two later, well, I might get accused of plagiarism, or something.
Capital One Bowl (Orlando, Fla.), Tues., Jan. 1, 1:00 PM
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 16 Nebraska
First of all, let us get this out of the way right now and admit that this game is not quite as interesting as the Outback Bowl, but it’s interesting nonetheless. If Nebraska had their hands full against a 7-5 Wisconsin team at a neutral site, good Lord, what is the seventh-ranked Georgia squad going to do to them? Second, what on Earth are the Cornhuskers doing being ranked 16th in the AP after a such can of whoopass had been opened up on them in Indianapolis? All that being said, the only thing that Nebraska has going for them (and I mean the only thing) is that the Bulldogs are a senior-laden team that was underachieved all season, and be very, very aware of such teams when they show up in bowl games, as they are likely to disappoint.
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, Calif.), Tues., Jan. 1, 5:00 PM
Wisconsin vs. No. 7 Stanford
The good news for Wisconsin is that they caught Nebraska off guard during the Big Ten championship game and have earned a third-straight berth to the Granddaddy of Them All. The bad news for Wisconsin is that they must face a Stanford squad that is arguably more formidable than last year’s Andrew Luck-led team. The Cardinal can more than match the Badgers in the trenches, and that instantly takes away their competitive advantage. More bad news: barring the possibility of Stanford breaking out their black helmets and all-cardinal Nike Pro Combat unis, this bowl game will be the matchup of the generic uniforms. The good news for all of us is that we will be “looking live,” as ABC’s front line crew of Brent Musburger and Kirk “Herbie” Herbstreit will be calling the game, folks!
Sugar Bowl (New Orleans), Wed., Jan. 2, 8:30 PM
No. 21 Louisville vs. No. 3 Florida
Yeah, yeah, I know that I filed this upcoming game under “who’s bringing the body bags?” That’s my safe prediction. My less-than safe prediction, shared by others, is that Florida’s occasional quarterbacking ineptitude might align itself with Louisville’s occasionally vulnerable secondary. Of course, even if both of those things click simultaneously, it’s not that safe of a bet that the same clicking will occur between the Gator’s formidable defense against the Cardinals’ Teddy Bridgewater, as sad as I am to say. Then again, it is the Big Easy, and the Charlie Strong can always dial up some voodoo magic.
Fiesta Bowl (Mesa, Ariz.), Thurs., Jan. 3, 8:30 PM
No. 4 Oregon vs. No. 5 Kansas State
When two teams in a bowl game that are very closely ranked square off, it is almost always interesting. But the game is watchable for other reasons as well, such as the intriguing contrast between the two teams. In one corner, wearing purple trimmed with white and silver are the Wildcats, with old man Bill Snyder working his magic albeit with a conventional offense. In the opposing corner, wearing some sort of green trimmed with yellow (we think: it could be black, silver, or something else, for that matter), is Chip Kelly’s Ducks, along with his progressive, hurry-up, hyper-drive offensive play. Think of the overall interest amounting to a weird variation on the old saying that “opposites attract.”
Cotton Bowl (Arlington, Texas), Friday, Jan. 4, 8:00 PM
No. 9 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Oklahoma
Old conference rivals reunite in a relocated classic bowl game (used to be in, well, the Cotton Bowl, now it’s in Jerryland). What makes the matchup even more interesting is that the Aggies’ current head coach, Kevin Sumlin, was at one time an assistant under Sooners’ head coach Bob Stoops. That notwithstanding, in all likelihood the pupil will become the teacher. Oklahoma is another one of those teams about which to beware, that being a team with lots of seniors that has underachieved all year; rarely does a team like that come through victorious during bowl season. Moreover, during the later part of the regular season, Coach Sumlin was coaching A&M so well that it seemed as though they could beat anybody in the nation. With that being said, this will be a major test to see whether or not they can beat anyone in the postseason.
BCS National Championship (Miami), Mon., Jan. 7, 8:30 PM
No. 1 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Alabama
On one hand, it is unlikely that Notre Dame has ever encountered any team with Alabama’s overall athleticism. On the other hand, Notre Dame has won lots of close games, and there is some skill to that. Ultimately, the game will come down to one of two things: will the Irish receivers be too much for the Crimson Tide’s secondary, or will Bama’s offensive line gradually take over in the middle of the third quarter? The result of the game will hinge on either contingency.
WWWD (What would Woody do)? November 14, 2011
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: Barry Switzer, Bear Bryant, Bobby Bowden, college football, Frank Kush, Howard Schnellenberger, Jerry Sandusky, Joe Paterno, JoePa, Lou Holtz, management, molestation, Ohio State, old school, pedophilia, Penn State, scandal, scenario, Woody Hayes
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How would Woody have done it? That is a popular question to ask in Columbus, Ohio, and throughout the Buckeye State. It can be a very effective conversation-starter in that part of the country, though beware of the side-effect of it possibly sparking some not-so-civil debates, too. But it may seem like an odd question to ask in the wake of the earth-shaking scandal at conference neighbor Penn State, a controversy so huge it has already resulted not only in the immediate termination of 46-year head coach Joe Paterno, but also in that athletics director Tim Curley has been placed on administrative leave, as he is charged with perjury and failure to report a crime, not to mention the resignation of the university president himself. In case you have been under a rock for the past eight days or so, long-time Penn State assistant coach Jerry Sandusky, who mysteriously retired from coaching at age 55 in 1999, has been charged with molesting a total of eight young boys (that we know of) over the past 15 years.
In hindsight, it has been alleged that Sandusky’s retirement at that relatively early age came about because this perverted proclivity of his was an obvious liability to the program, and was quietly nudged out. Still, for the past 12 years, not only has Sandusky been allowed back on campus, but was granted practically unlimited access to the football facilities (locker room, weight
room, you name it) and was on campus frequently as part of his non-profit organization that he established to help at-risk youth – commendable thing by itself, to be sure.
If I do a little rudimentary arithmetic, 2011 minus 15 equals 1996. Yet Sandusky was not gently nudged out until 1999, three years later. That alone does not seem right. So I come back to my original inquiry: how would Woody have handled it? Given his hard-nosed, no-nonsense demeanor, one can surmise two possible scenarios.
Scenario A: Upon learning the news that Woody has a sick pervert on his staff, Woody, barges into that coach’s office, confronts him point-blank, with the upshot that said coach has 15 minutes to clear out his office before he calls campus security, and follows up with the ultimatum that said coach better not do so much as come within a hundred yards of the campus ever again, or there shall be hell to pay.
Scenario B: Instead of the pedophile coach being charged with child molestation, Woody would be charged with manslaughter, for many a red-blooded American male would find it to be his manly duty to dispatch with the pervert himself with one’s own bare hands.
The reason I mention Woody at all in the wake of these now-discovered, hideous, though alleged, evils on the part of Jerry Sandusky is there is some commonality with the late Wayne Woodrow Hayes and Joe[Grand]Pa. Both are/were larger-than-life figures for their respective programs. Both have/had won national championships. Moreover, both have been known, either publicly or privately, as uncompromising, my-way-or-the-highway leaders, and both careers ended in scandal, albeit to varying degrees.
But an even bigger reason for mentioning Hayes at a time like this is that both he and Paterno are considered “old school.” The aforementioned “scenarios” are surely commensurate with an “old school” solution to having such a pervert in one’s midst. Unfortunately in this case, those are not the only two old school scenarios out there. Even more unfortunately, Paterno chose old
school Scenario C: keep it quiet, and sweep it under the rug. Not really a good idea back then, and a horrible one in these modern times.
The rationalizations for Paterno not dealing with this problem in a more direct manner are fairly diverse, among those being “maybe he did not know.” Puh-leeze. As a former staff member on a Big Ten football team, I have witnessed first-hand the long hours the head coach and his assistants alike work for months on end. A coaching staff in D-1 college football becomes a very closely-knit bunch. There is no physical way on this Earth that the other coaches did not know about Sandusky’s alleged perversion. Anyone to suggest otherwise knows nothing about the social nature and the demands of the profession.
Given this reality, how come nothing was done to address this glaring liability? The aforementioned “Scenario C” only partially provides the answer. A more thorough explanation would be the overall organizational culture, something one can only lay at the feet of the head coach himself. As I have explained to many of my students when teaching business courses at National College in
Louisville, Ky., the head coach of a football program is in every way the CEO of that program. The main job of the CEO of any organization is not only to set the company’s strategy (to both devise and implement), but to set the organization’s tone – indeed, it’s very culture. As we the public have now discovered in the most unwitting way possible – within reason – the culture Paterno established was one of enabling, as in, looking the other way.
Seeing things another way, can one see other “old school” coaches establishing an enabling culture like at Penn State? Could one envision, say, Barry Switzer, Howard Schnellenberger, Bear Bryant, or even Lou Holtz countenancing such alleged evils on their watch?
There are many lessons to be learned from this stranger-than-fiction, sordid tale. I could have thought of a few possible ways that would lead to JoePa’s long-overdue departure, but if somebody earlier this year told me that a scandal of this magnitude would A) actually occur, and B) lead to Paterno’s immediate ouster, I would have said they were crazy. But aside from that, the lessons:
Lesson 1: It never ends well for these geriatric head coaches that have been a legendary, overpowering fixture at a program for multiple decades when they do not know when it is time to exit the stage. Just ask Florida State’s dad-gum coach Bobby Bowden. To the credit of Bear Bryant, arguably the greatest coach of all time in any sport, not just football, he finally figured out when it was time to say “when.” It ended well for him (he even went out winning a bowl game). Not so much Sweet Ol’ Bobby, nor for Joe[Grand]Pa.
Lesson 2: An enabling culture will eventually come back to haunt you, whether you are a living legend, or a young, seemingly innocent up-and-comer (e.g., Mike McQueary). If you are the latter, it can ruin your career before it fully develops. If you are the former, it can permanently tarnish if not outright ruin the legacy you have labored decades to build.
Lesson 3: Speaking of not ending well, that is particularly the case for these dictatorial, inflexible, my-way-or-the-highway head coaches, as Joe Paterno is now learning the hard way (at age 84). He could have learned this lesson from Frank Kush at Arizona State. Heck, he could have asked Woody.
intellectualgridiron 