Playoff scenarios based on the latest AP Polls (Week 8, 2018) October 18, 2018
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: Alabama, Atlanta, Auburn, Austin, B1G, Big Ten, Buckeyes, Bulldogs, Chicago, Clemson, Crimson Tide, Dallas, Florida, Fort Worth, Georgia, Houston, Hurricanes, Iowa State, Lee Corso, Longhorns, Los Angeles, Lou Holtz, LSU, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, New York, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Sam Ehlinger, San Antonio, SEC, Tennessee, Texas, USC, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia
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Week 7 in college football for the 2018 provided considerable thrills – and headaches – for fans, what with upsets abounding, especially near the top of the rankings. Unranked Tennessee taking down then-No. 17 Auburn, and unranked Virginia beating then-No. 16 Miami (Fla.) are small potatoes compared to upsets elsewhere that week.
Indeed, no fewer than four AP top ten teams went down in defeat in Week 7 of 2018. For starters, No. 17 Oregon outlasted then-No. 7 Washington, 30-27, in overtime. Unranked Michigan State toppled No. 8 Penn State on the road, 21-17. Iowa State leveraged their special night-time atmosphere to help them beat then-undefeated (and then-No. 6) West Virginia 30-14. Even more significant was No. 13 LSU pommeling then-No. 2 Georgia 36-16.
As a result of these four key upsets, Washington fell from the No. 7 ranking to No. 15. Penn State fell from No. 8 to No. 18. West Virginia fell from No. 6 to No. 13, while Georgia fell from No. 2 to No. 8.
Last year, the Bulldogs made it to the national championship game. Now, the prospect to return is in jeopardy. At least it’s October and not November, meaning there is still time to recover.
Regardless, the current AP Top Ten now suggests some very intriguing playoff possibilities. These are important for the health of college football. An all-southern/all-SEC college football championship game my thrill the faithful in the southeastern region of the country, but it turns off the rest of the country. That’s bad for business. If your sport starts to be perceived as regional in its nature, that hurts your national image, and prevents you from engaging the markets you need to be interested in order to ensure its long-term strength and viability. Alabama vs. Clemson and Alabama vs. Georgia thus saw a TV ratings decline, whereas Texas vs. USC (2005-’06) and Ohio State vs. Oregon (2014-’15) where perfect matchups to bring in robust, national audiences. Ohio State vs. Florida (2006-’07), Ohio State vs. LSU (2007-’08) and especially Ohio State vs. Miami (2002-’03) were decent-to-great matchups as well for this purpose. Alabama vs. Notre Dame (2012-’13) was good on paper, but the outcome of the game proved that it was a mismatch, with the Irish clearly being overrated at the time.
Start with a basic premise that it’s good for business when traditional powers do well. If Georgia does well, that engages the Atlanta market, which is pretty big, in case you forgot. If Notre Dame does well, it engages the Chicago and New York City markets. If USC does well, it engages the Los Angeles market. If Ohio State and Michigan do well (either or both), that engages much of the Midwestern markets, as well as the Big Ten alums who have left the Midwest for the East Coast, the South, or the West Coast. If Texas does well, it engages the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston Markets. You get the picture.
Now, back to the Week 8 Top Ten rankings from the AP poll. At No. 1 remains Alabama. Ok, fine. With Georgia knocked out of the No. 2 spot (but still in the top ten), that allows for Ohio State to take over that position. This is good for the sport. Clemson has moved a spot to No. 3, while Notre Dame has quietly moved up to the No. 4 ranking.
Just by looking at these current top four spots, if these remain unchanged and translate directly into playoff rankings, one would have a great playoff scenario to engage a critical mass of the viewing public. Alabama and Clemson would be there to keep the South’s fever pitch at maximum levels, while Ohio State and Notre Dame enjoy national audiences so as to include enough of the rest of the country as well. The Fighting Irish’s ranking this time is no wishful thinking. Thoughtful analysts concur that this 2018 ND team is much stronger and more athletic than its overrated 2012 counterpart. Fox Sports’ Colin Cowherd has gone so far as to observe that this is the best ND team since the Lou Holtz era. As ESPN’s Lee Corso would exclaim, “Yo!”
While there is no west coast team in sight in these current rankings, that is not a deal-breaker, either. There are enough Big Ten grads on the west coast to keep those markets engaged should Ohio State make it to the playoffs. The Buckeyes, in this scenario, would represent the West Coast as well as the Midwest.
Naturally, much football remains to be played, and the remainder of the top ten shall make all efforts to crack their way into the playoffs as well. Of those currently poised for such possibilities, some of them, too, offer intriguing engagement opportunities. LSU sits at No. 5 after their ripping upset victory over the Bulldogs, and are destined for a major showdown with the Crimson Tide come Nov. 3, in Baton Rouge, no less. Michigan sits at No. 6 after their big win over Wisconsin last night. If they maintain their momentum, their Nov. 24 annual grudge match with the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor could be epic.
Meanwhile, Texas has survived another test and now sits at No. 7. If QB Sam Ehlinger stays healthy, who knows how much further the Longhorns could continue to climb? This is key to note because Texas in the playoffs engages a different market than the Southeast. The beauty of Texas in the championship game is that they can theoretically engage two markets simultaneously, as a B1G team can do vis-à-vis both the Midwest and other regions. In Texas’ case, not only can a Longhorn playoff appearance pique the interest of the DFW and Houston metro areas (San Antonio and Austin don’t hurt either, as that is another combined 4 million-plus people in that mini-megalopolis), but the Southeast could vicariously join in, too.
An Oklahoma (currently No. 9) playoff appearance, while a different region than the Southeast, has a limited upside. Yes, it engages the central plains, but there is not much major population there). Best case scenario is that it will interest the OU grad transplants living in the major Texas markets. The Longhorns, thankfully, have done their part, though, in making the more market-significant team better-poised for a playoff run at this point.
This is not a swipe at the SEC, or the fans therein, for a personally love southern football and identify with the South. As someone who is concerned about the national and long-term health of college football, however, perspective must be maintained. Fans in SEC country will watch the playoffs no matter who is playing. Fans elsewhere, though, will only watch if they feel they have a stake in things; that they are being represented. We have enjoyed such perfect or near-perfect matchups in the past, such as the aforementioned Texas-USC games and the Ohio State-Oregon games, for example.
Meanwhile, more big games remain, and the way things have gone thus far, more upsets are likely to occur. Teams currently in the bottom half of the top ten could claw theyr way up with help from such theoretical upsets. After all, we’re halfway to regular season’s end, and the stakes and urgency only intensify from here. Let’s enjoy the ride, and cheer on the key wins that would help make for the best playoff matches with optimal, national appeal while we’re at it!
College Football Awards, Week 5 (2018) September 30, 2018
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: Air Force, Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Army, Bobby Petrino, Bowling Green, Cal, California, Chris Ash, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado State, Duke, FIU, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Hurricanes, Illinois, Jeff Monken, Jim Harbaugh, Justin Wilcox, Kansas State, Kevin Sumlin, Larry Fedora, liberty, Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, Louisville, Miami, Michigan, Mississippi State, Navy, Nebraska, New Mexico, Nittany Lions, North Carolina, North Texas, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Pat Fitzgerald, Penn State, Red River Shootout, Rice, Rutgers, San Jose State, Scott Frost, South Alabama, Stanford, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Tulane, Urban Meyer, UTEP, Virginia Tech
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(Note: All rankings are current AP [week 5] unless otherwise noted.)
COACHES
Wish I were him: Urban Meyer, Ohio State
Glad I’m not him: Larry Fedora, North Carolina
Lucky guy: Jim Harbaugh, Michigan
Poor guy: Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern
Desperately seeking a wake-up call: Bobby Petrino, Louisville (held over for second week!)
Desperately seeking a P.R. man: Jeff Monken, Army
Desperately seeking sunglasses and a fake beard: Scott Frost, Nebraska
Desperately seeking … anything: Chris Ash, Rutgers
TEAMS
Thought you’d kick butt, you did: Alabama (defeated Louisiana 56-14)
Thought you’d kick butt, you didn’t: Georgia (defeated Tennessee 38-12)
Thought you’d get your butt kicked, you did: Bowling Green (lost to Georgia Tech 63-17)
Thought you’d get your butt kicked, you didn’t: Syracuse (lost to Clemson 27-23)
Thought you wouldn’t kick butt, you did: Miami (North Carolina 47-10)
Dang, they’re good: Alabama
Dang, they’re bad: South Alabama
Can’t Stand Prosperity: Duke
Did the season start? Louisville
Can the season end? Rice
Can the season never end? Notre Dame
GAMES
Play this again: No. 4 Ohio State 27, No. 10 Penn State 26
Never play this again: FIU 55, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 9
What? Liberty 52, New Mexico 43
Huh? Florida 13, No. 23 Mississippi State 6
Are you kidding me?? Virginia Tech 31, No. 22 Duke 14
Oh – my – God: No. 8 Notre Dame 38, No. 7 Stanford 17
NEXT WEEK
Rankings are current AP (week 5)
Ticket to die for: No. 18 Texas vs. No. 6 Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout (Dallas)
Best non-Power Five vs. Power Five matchup: Louisiana-Monroe @ Ole Miss
Best non-Power Five matchup: SMU @ UCF
Upset alert: No. 8 Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech
Must win: Georgia Tech @ Louisville
Offensive explosion: (inconclusive)
Defensive struggle: Navy @ Air Force
Great game no one is talking about: Tulane @ Cincinnati
Intriguing coaching matchup: Justin Wilcox of Cal vs. Kevin Sumlin of Arizona
Who’s bringing the body bags? No. 1 Alabama @ Arkansas
Why are they playing? North Texas @ UTEP
Plenty of good seats remaining: Colorado State @ San Jose State
They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? Illinois @ Rutgers
Week 5 Thoughts:
This week was one of the most important of the year for this college football season. Although there were few upsets, and ever fewer of consequence (despite some close calls – looking your way, Michigan and Ohio State), there were still two games of enormous importance.
Let us start with the biggest game of the week, which was Ohio State playing Penn State in Happy Valley. With a “white-out” at night filling the 107,000-seat stadium, the Nittany Lions played above their No. 10 ranking, almost defeating No. 4 Ohio State. Almost. In the end, both teams played up to their high potential, and the slightly-better team on paper turned out to be the slightly better team on the field of play. The obvious national championship implications of the matchup and outcome is only part of the importance of this game, which shall be explained in further depth in a subsequent article.
The other game of enormous consequence was Stanford at Notre Dame. This was another top ten matchup with both teams outside of the South, with the victor having further potential to advance in the rankings. As wonderful as the southern teams are, having a healthy amount of top-ten (or even top-15) teams outside of the Southeast region is good for football because it makes the sport more national and less regional. This importance shall also be explained further in an article that shall be forthcoming soon.
Oh, and don’t look now, but Texas is on a four-game win streak, and survived a trap game at Kansas State headed into the Red River Shootout, er, Showdown come Oct. 6.
College Football Awards, Week 4 (2018) September 23, 2018
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: Alabama, Appalachian State, Arkansas, Army, Bill Snyder, Bobby Petrino, Boilermakers, Boilers, Boston College, Cardinals, Cavaliers, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado State, Crimson Tide, David Shaw, Eastern Michigan, Florida, Fresno State, Gardner-Webb, Georgia, Hurricanes, Illinois, Illinois State, Jeff Brohm, Justin Fuente, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Luke Fickell, Mario Cristobal, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Mike Gundy, Mississippi State, Navy, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Oregon, Pac-12, Penn State, Pitt, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Sam Darnold, Scott Frost, SMU, Southern Cal, Stanford, Tennessee State, Texas, Texas Tech, Toledo, Tom Herman, Trojans, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF, USC, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington State, West Virginia
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(Note: All rankings are current AP [week 4] unless otherwise noted.)
COACHES
Wish I were him: Tom Herman, Texas
Glad I’m not him: Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State
Lucky guy: David Shaw, Stanford
Poor guy: Mario Cristobal, Oregon
Desperately seeking a wake-up call: Bobby Petrino, Louisville
Desperately seeking a P.R. man: Luke Fickell, Cincinnati
Desperately seeking sunglasses and a fake beard: Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech
Desperately seeking … anything: Scott Frost, Nebraska
TEAMS
Thought you’d kick butt, you did: Penn State (defeated Illinois 63-24)
Thought you’d kick butt, you didn’t: Oklahoma (defeated Army 28-21 in OT)
Thought you’d get your butt kicked, you did: Tulane (lost to No. 9 Ohio State 49-6)
Thought you’d get your butt kicked, you didn’t: Army (lost to Oklahoma 28-21 in OT)
Thought you wouldn’t kick butt, you did: Texas Tech (defeated No. 15 Oklahoma State 17)
Dang, they’re good: Clemson
Dang, they’re bad: Arkansas
Can’t Stand Prosperity: Virginia Tech
Did the season start? Nebraska
Can the season end? Rutgers
Can the season never end? Alabama
GAMES
Play this again: No. 7 Stanford 38, No. 20 Oregon 31
Play this again, too: SMU 31, Navy 30
Never play this again: Appalachian State 72, Gardner-Webb 7
What? Purdue 30, No. 23 Boston College 13
Huh? Texas Tech 41, No. 15 Oklahoma State 17
Double Huh? Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19
Are you kidding me?? Kentucky 28, No. 14 Mississippi State 7
Oh – my – God: Old Dominion 49, No. 13 Virginia Tech 35
NEXT WEEK (Rankings are current AP, week 5)
Ticket to die for: No. 4 Ohio State @ No. 9 Penn State
Also: No. 7 Stanford @ No. 8 Notre Dame
Best non-Power Five vs. Power Five matchup: Pitt @ UCF
Best non-Power Five matchup: Toledo @ Fresno State
Upset alert: Texas Tech @ No. 12 West Virginia
Must win: Purdue @ Nebraska
Offensive explosion: Toledo @ Fresno State
Defensive struggle: Florida @ No. 23 Mississippi State
Great game no one is talking about: No.18 Texas @ Kansas State
Intriguing coaching matchup: Bill Snyder of Kansas State vs. Tom Herman of Texas
Who’s bringing the body bags? Louisiana @ No. 1 Alabama
Why are they playing? Southern Miss @ No. 10 Auburn
Plenty of good seats remaining: UTEP @ UTSA
They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? Tennessee State @ Vanderbilt
Week 4 Thoughts:
Purdue has started the season as a major head-scratcher. Coming off a surprising winning season after the Hazell-era doldrums, including a bowl win, the Boilermaker faithful had high hopes for the team in 2018. Thus far, after an understandable, opening-season loss to then-ranked Northwestern, Purdue proceeded to lose squeakers at home to beatable teams, including [shudder], Eastern Michigan – a directional school. Chalk it up to an undisciplined defense and a lack of a running game. Regardless, the Boilers have their first win of the year, and, all things considered, it’s a rather big one, handily defeating No. 23 Boston College 30-13. To be sure, Purdue did step it up on defense, and if they can maintain this newfound intensity on that side of the ball, there’s hope for the season yet. All that said, sometimes it takes a few weeks for a good team to find its footing and thus to play up to its potential.
The team now becoming an even bigger head-scratcher is Louisville. Sure, they lost badly to Alabama, but the Crimson Tide is such a juggernaut this year that most winning-season teams will look pathetic against them. What really raised concerns was having to struggle, at home, to beat Western Kentucky – another directional school! Let us thus give the Cardinals an ex-post-facto “Thought you’d kick butt, you didn’t”. But now they got embarrassed, on the road to a beatable team in Virginia. At 27-3, are the Cavaliers that much better than the Cards? Is their offense that poor that they failed to punch it into the endzone, with only a sad field goal to open the 3rd quarter? A comparison of recent seasonal performances of both teams would say no, but today’s score would suggest so. Here is one possible diagnosis of Louisville’s under-performance. In the last few years (basically since Lamar Jackson was QB), Petrino has been fixated on “skills” players while acting as if he can get any lumbering lummox to block on the line. So, while he might have NFL-caliber talent on the wings, he has no way of executing plays. Has the time come to where Petrino would be better off as an offensive coordinator instead of a head coach? Further observation and analysis of the team’s performance shall tell us yes or no.
What about USC? Before losing badly on the road to Texas last week, they were ranked and poised to compete for the Pac-12 title again. But on Friday night, they had to play hard at home to beat unranked Washington State. One possible explanation: Sam Darnold’s talent at QB papered over the mediocrity of talent on the coaching staff. While I’m not a Trojans fan personally, I nevertheless recognize that when a traditional power like USC does well, it’s good for college football (same goes for other traditional powers like Georgia, Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, or even Miami (Fla.)). Conversely, a mediocre Southern Cal team is thus not great for college football. Let us hope that they can eventually rise back to national title contention to help keep the west coast markets engaged in the game. After all, it’s never good for a sport to become regional (looking your way, Major League Baseball).
Speaking of Texas, are they “back”? And why were they ever, well, not back? This article by Pete Thamel explains the nature of why a national brand and a massively-valued program ever needed turning around in the first place (hint: turning around an aircraft carrier takes much, much longer than turning around, say, a personal sailboat). Forget, for a moment, that the program sure did not help anybody, least of all themselves, by laying an egg on the road to Maryland, and then under-performing at home the next week against Tulsa. The Longhorns’ big win over USC last week might not indicate that the team is “back” as strongly as one would think due to USC’s apparent mediocrity at the moment. But then again, Texas did follow up with another big win, this time over No. 16 TCU, 31-16. So the current conclusion is, if they’re not “back” yet, they’re certainly headed in the right direction. Onward and upward.
College Football Awards Week 13 (2017) November 27, 2017
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, B1G, Baylor, Big Ten, Big XII, Bret Bielema, Brian Kelly, Bulldogs, Clemson, Coastal Carolina, Dabo Swinney, East Carolina, FIU, Florida State, Frank Solich, Georgia, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Gus Malzahn, Hurricanes, Idaho, Kentucky, Lamar Jackson, Longhorns, Louisiana-Monroe, Louisville, Mark Richt, Maryland, Matt Luke, Memphis, Miami, Michigan, Mississippi State, Nick Saban, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Ohio U, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Pac-12, Penn State, Pitt, Pittsburgh, Rocky Long, San Diego State, San Jose State, Seminoles, Stanford, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, Tigers, Tom Herman, UCF, UMass, USC, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming
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(Note: All rankings are current AP [week 13] unless otherwise noted.)
COACHES
Wish I were him: Gus Malzahn, Auburn
Glad I’m not him: Nick Saban, Alabama
Lucky guy: Matt Luke, Ole Miss
Poor guy: Brian Kelly, Notre Dame
Desperately seeking a wake-up call: Frank Solich, Ohio U
Desperately seeking a P.R. man: Rocky Long, San Diego State
Desperately seeking sunglasses and a fake beard: Mark Richt, Miami also: Tom Herman, Texas
Desperately seeking … anything: Bret Bielema, Arkansas
TEAMS
Thought you’d kick butt, you did: Penn State (defeated Maryland 66-3)
Thought you’d kick butt, you didn’t: TCU (defeated Baylor 45-22)
Thought you’d get your butt kicked, you did: East Carolina (lost to No. 20 Memphis 70-13)
Thought you’d get your butt kicked, you didn’t: San Jose State (defeated Wyoming 20-17)
Thought you wouldn’t kick butt, you did: Louisville (defeated Kentucky 44-17)
Dang, they’re good: Auburn
Dang, they’re bad: East Carolina
Can’t Stand Prosperity: Miami
Did the season start? Alabama
Can the season end? Arkansas
Can the season never end? Oklahoma
GAMES
Play this again: No. 6 Auburn 26, No. 1 Alabama 14
Play this again, too: Ole Miss 31, No. 14 Mississippi State 28
Never play this again: No. 20 Memphis 70, East Carolina 13
What? Ole Miss 31, No. 14 Mississippi State 28
Huh? No. 21 Stanford 38, No. 8 Notre Dame 20
Are you kidding me?? Pittsburgh 24, No. 2 Miami 14
Oh – my – God: No. 6 Auburn 26, No. 1 Alabama 14
NEXT WEEK
(rankings are current AP, post-week 13)
Ticket to die for: No. 9 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Wisconsin in the B1G championship (Indianapolis)
Best non-Power Five vs. Power Five matchup: none
Best non-Power Five matchup: No. 20 Memphis @ No. 15 UCF (AAC championship)
Upset alert: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin Also: No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 6 Auburn in the SEC championship (Atlanta)
Must win: (any championship game with playoff implications)
Offensive explosion: No. 12 TCU @ No. 4 Oklahoma (Big XII championship)
Defensive struggle: (jury’s still out)
Great game no one is talking about: No. 21 Stanford vs. No. 11 USC in the Pac-12 championship
Intriguing coaching matchup: Mark Richt of Miami vs. Dabo Swinney of Clemson
Who’s bringing the body bags? Louisiana-Monroe @ Florida State
Why are they playing? UMass @ FIU
Plenty of good seats remaining: Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina
They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? Idaho @ Georgia State
Week 13 Random Thoughts:
This weekend was one of reckoning for teams vying for playoff contention. Some survived, others went down in flames. One, surprisingly, was Alabama. In hindsight, the Tide was somewhat fool’s gold. All their tough conference games were at home. The season’s opener against Florida State was supposed to be a very marquee matchup, but it quickly became a rout once the Seminoles’ starting quarterback was knocked out of the game (and out for the season), thus sending FSU’s season town the toilet before it truly began. Last week should have been a greater warning than most of us acknowledged, what with Mississippi State giving the Tide a scare on the road. They escaped, only to face their first real test of the whole season, ironically at its end. They failed to step up to the challenge. Conversely, Auburn has proven they are the real deal, a playoff-worthy contender.
Clemson seems to have bounced back very nicely from the loss of their starting QB. Having handily defeated a good South Carolina team, they now prepare for this upcoming week’s ACC championship game. There they face Miami, who surprisingly lost to Pitt in their first loss all year. The inopportune loss was bad enough, but they looked listless in defeat as well, perhaps convincing a critical mass of voters that the Hurricanes are not the playoff-worthy team we thought they were. All that said, they still clinched their division for the first time since its inception, and now face the Tigers this upcoming week. The odds favor the Tigers, but then again, there are compelling reasons why we line ‘em up and play.
Ohio State stated off slowly against Michigan in “The Big House,” allowing the Wolverines to score two touchdowns. But the Buckeyes eventually got going and eventually rolled to victory. While Alabama failed to knock Auburn out of contention, Notre Dame’s convincing loss to Stanford and Miami’s sudden loss could nevertheless keep the door open for their playoff hopes. Next step is to beat Wisconsin the Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis this upcoming weekend.
Texas seemed to have rediscovered their offense on the road last week at West Virginia. This week, they could only muster 23 points, at home, to Texas Tech, who is hardly the defensive juggernaut. Things have improved this year with the Longhorns compared to the previous few seasons. Case in point, the Horns remain bowl-eligible. But much work and improvement clearly remains. The biggest objective is: find offensive consistency.
Louisville is finally playing back to form, practically scoring at will over a deceptively formidably Kentucky squad. Whether Lamar Jackson deserves a return trip to Manhattan for Heisman consideration is neither here nor there, but his team is in a far better position than it was last year, trending the proper direction as they await their bowl bid destination.
Okay, so my “near-perfect playoff scenario” is already compromised. This is not a huge surprise. In hindsight, Alabama was not the juggernaut we thought they were, and Miami was not as far along as they seemed earlier this year (but at this rate, Mark Richt will bring them into legit contention). Perhaps, at this rate, it could be Clemson, Auburn, Ohio State, and Oklahoma. With that in mind, Auburn is to face Georgia for a rematch, this time in Atlanta. The Bulldogs shall surely be out for revenge. The bottom line is, the reckoning is not over yet. Buckle up.
But seriously, Ohio State, ditch those gray-black uniforms. They look horrible.
College Football Awards Week 12 (2017) November 19, 2017
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: Akron, Arkansas, Badgers, Baylor, Boston College, Bruins, BYU, Central Florida, Charlie Strong, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Dave Clawson, Egg Bowl, Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida State, Frank Solich, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Jim Harbaugh, Jim Mora, Kansas State, Kentucky, Kevin Sumlin, Kilane Sitake, Kirk Ferentz, Longhorns, Louisville, Matt Luke, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Navy, NC State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Ohio U, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Paul Chryst, Purdue, Scott Frost, South Alabama, South Carolina, South Florida, Stanford, Syracuse, TCU, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCF, UCLA, UConn, USC, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Washington, Washington State, Wisconsin, Wolfpack
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(Note: All rankings are current AP [week 12] unless otherwise noted.)
COACHES
Wish I were him: Paul Chryst, Wisconsin
Glad I’m not him: Jim Harbaugh, Michigan
Lucky guy: Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M
Poor guy: Matt Luke, Ole Miss
Desperately seeking a wake-up call: Frank Solich, Ohio U
Desperately seeking a P.R. man: Dave Clawson, Wake Forest
Desperately seeking sunglasses and a fake beard: Kirk Ferenz, Iowa
Desperately seeking … anything: Kilane Sitake, BYU
TEAMS
Thought you’d kick butt, you did: Louisville (defeated Syracuse 56-10)
Thought you’d kick butt, you didn’t: Mississippi State (defeated Arkansas 28-21)
Thought you’d get your butt kicked, you did: Illinois (lost to Ohio State 52-14)
Thought you’d get your butt kicked, you didn’t: Navy (lost to No. 8 Notre Dame 24-17)
Thought you wouldn’t kick butt, you did: Northwestern (defeated Minnesota 39-0)
Dang, they’re good: Ohio State
Dang, they’re bad: South Alabama
Can’t Stand Prosperity: Iowa
Did the season start? Oklahoma State
Can the season end? Tennessee
Can the season never end? Oklahoma
GAMES
Play this again: Texas A&M 31, Ole Miss 24
Play this again, too: Kansas State 45, No. 13 Oklahoma State 40
Never play this again: Florida State 77, Delaware State 6
What? Akron 37, Ohio U 34
Huh? Wake Forest 30, No. 19 NC State 24
Are you kidding me?? Kansas State 45, No. 13 Oklahoma State 40
Oh – my – God: Purdue 24, Iowa 15
NEXT WEEK
(rankings are current AP (post-week 12, pre-week 13)
Ticket to die for: No. 9 Ohio State @ Michigan also: No. 1 Alabama @ No. 6 Auburn
Best non-Power Five vs. Power Five matchup: none
Best non-Power Five matchup: South Florida @ No. 15 UCF
Upset alert: No. 2 Clemson @ South Carolina also: No. 8 Notre Dame @ No. 22 Stanford
Must win: Indiana @ Purdue also: No. 9 Ohio State @ Michigan
Offensive explosion: No. 14 Washington State @ No. 18 Washington
Defensive struggle: Florida State @ Florida
Great game no one is talking about: Louisville @ Kentucky
Intriguing coaching matchup: Scott Frost of Central Florida vs Charlie Strong of South Florida
Who’s bringing the body bags? Baylor @ No. 12 TCU
Why are they playing? Florida Atlantic @ Charlotte
Plenty of good seats remaining: UConn @ Cincinnati
They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? Vanderbilt @ Tennessee
Week 12 Random Thoughts:
Today yielded no earth-shattering upsets. How could it, with so many highly-ranked teams inexplicably engaged in body bag games so late in the year? Nevertheless, some interesting upsets did ensue. Pathetic Akron took down perennial MAC contender Ohio U, for example. Kansas State defeated Oklahoma State on the road. Unranked Wake Forest (now 7-4, surprisingly) upset No. 19 NC State, putting a blemish on an otherwise impressive year for the Wolfpack. Even more amazingly, Purdue went on the road to play Iowa, a game where nobody, least of all yours truly, gave them a chance to win, and yet they did anyhow. Don’t ask how the same team that embarrassed Ohio State by the worst margin in more than two decades could lose two weeks later at home to a lesser team. There is no rational explanation.
Texas earned a great win, on the road, over West Virginia. Two weeks ago, the Longhorns gave a pitiful offensive performance against TCU, and offered only a middling performance in their win over Kansas last week. Naturally, this turn of events gave the Longhorn faithful cause for concern. Whether these concerns are no longer valid remains to be seen. But adjustments were clearly made, to the point where Texas was able to win, convincingly, in a tough environment, against a favored team. Looks like progress, and the Horns are now bowl-eligible to boot. Next week they close the regular season at home against Texas Tech, which will be a decent test to see if they can maintain their current level of performance.
Remember my earlier speculation about Purdue’s bowl chances having evaporated? Wad that thought up and toss it out the window. Purdue’s surprising upset over Iowa – on the road, no less – has given their season a new life. Don’t ask how this came to pass. Be all that as it may, this upcoming week, both Purdue and in-state rival Indiana shall play each other for two things, not just one. Not only will they play for the Old Oaken Bucket trophy, but also for bowl eligibility. No telling the last time the stakes were that high for the two teams.
Every season, there is always a surprise or two. One such this year is Central Florida, who currently undefeated and ranked first in the All-American Conference East Division. At a current rank of no. 15, head coach Scott Frost seems to know what he is doing. This is the same Scott Frost who was the capable, tough, dependable quarterback who led Nebraska to a share of the national title with Michigan in the 1997 season. After several years as a back-up QB in the NFL, he gradually worked his way up the ranks in coaching. With a relatively easy schedule remaining, the Golden Knights could remain undefeated going into the ultimate conference showdown at season’s end. Then, they face 9-1 South Florida, led by Coach Charlie Strong. Surely that is to be one of the most intriguing of coaching matchups of the year!
Shout-out to Notre Dame for wearing very cool-looking, throwback-inspired uniforms during their game against Navy. I sincerely hope that more teams with gold in their school colors have the good sense to copy those nice-looking gold pants that the Irish wore this week.
Just several weeks earlier, Louisville could not beat Wake Forest or Boston College. Now, they seem to have turned things around. Their 56-10 walloping of Syracuse is a sure sign the Cardinals are playing back to form, and are doing so just at the right time, as they take on in-state rival Kentucky this upcoming week.
UCLA just fired Jim Mora, Jr. Ironically, the Bruins lost last night to cross-town rival USC by a respectable margin, 28-23. But the powers that be in Westwood clearly did not like the direction the program was headed. Mora helped create high expectations for the Bruin faithful, but sadly failed to deliver (UCLA is now 5-6). Then again, the school is only partially committed compared to USC, or to any other program that is determined to compete for a national title. Firing the current head coach shall thus not solve this systemic problem.
With Wisconsin’s win over Michigan, the Badgers continue their undefeated streak and are on a certain course to represent the Western Division in the Big Ten championship. All Ohio State has to do is beat Michigan this upcoming week for the rights to butt heads with the Badgers. My scenario for the best possible playoff scenario thus continues, but more pratfalls remain.
The best game on Thanksgiving is not played in Detroit or Dallas. No, rather it is usually the “Egg Bowl,” the annual Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State grudge-match that shall once again kickoff on the evening of the fourth Thursday in November. Let us enjoy it, and God Bless America!
My Nearly Perfect Playoff Scenario November 16, 2017
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: ACC, Alabama, AP, Auburn, B1G, Baker Mayfield, Big Ten, BYU, Clemson, college football, Crimson Tide, Georgia, Hurricanes, Miami, Michigan, Mississippi State, NCAA, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pac-12, playoffs, poll, TCU, Utah State, Wisconsin
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The developments in this past week of college football have shaken up the polls yet again, thus further modifying the playoff projections. Given the current state of affairs, if the new AP poll is of any indication, here’s how I think things could play out.
The current top eight in the AP poll is as follows:
- Alabama
- Miami
- Oklahoma
- Clemson
- Wisconsin
- Auburn
- Georgia
- Ohio State
So, based on current polling and whom the teams have yet to play, who goes into the final four of the playoffs? My scenario could lead to near-perfection.
Let’s start with Alabama. Mississippi State almost beat them at home. So, the Crimson Tide is vulnerable. Nevertheless, they’ll get an easy win over a cupcake in Mercer this Saturday. That leaves us with Auburn at No. 6. Strange things happen in rivalry games. Even stranger things happen in the Iron Bowl, arguably the most heated, bitter rivalry in college sports. Bama thought they would be playing for the national title until the famous “kick-six” incident of 2013, for example. Nevertheless, let us say for the sake of argument that Bama beats Auburn. On paper, this is entirely possible. Auburn will thus have three losses, and be eliminated from playoff consideration.
The Tide remains undefeated, and goes onto the SEC championship game in Atlanta. There, they play Georgia, who was briefly No. 1 before getting their asses handed to them by Auburn. Now at No. 7, they’ll still give Alabama a good challenge in Atlanta. But on paper, the odds still favor The Tide. Let us thus accept the law of averages and say Bama wins. Again. Having knocked out both Auburn AND Georgia, Bama as undefeated AND SEC champs, also ranked No. 1, instantly clinch a playoff berth.
Berth No. 1 of 4: Alabama
Next up is Miami. After tearing Notre Dame a new one in Hard Rock Stadium, the Hurricanes now sit at No. 2 in the AP. They have also clinched the Atlantic Division of the ACC for the first time since the conference split into those two divisions. To remain undefeated in the regular season, they need to take out Virginia (at home) and Pittsburgh (on the road). Both are doable, obviously, though keep an eye out for the Canes having to deal with cold Pittsburgh weather in late November.
At any rate, the Hurricanes are now slated to play Clemson, currently No. 4 in the AP, for the ACC Championship. That game will be in Charlotte in early December, effectively a home game for the Tigers. IF the Hurricanes can overcome this huge challenge and triumph over Clemson, they shall be undefeated, ACC champs, and shall have clinched the second spot in the playoffs. This could actually be the most tenuous of contingencies. Nevertheless…
Berth No. 2 of 4: Miami
Oklahoma currently sits at No. 3. Aside from Iowa State, the Sooners have risen to the occasion each game, recently beating a tough TCU squad. OU quarterback Baker Mayfield is a more mature version of Johnny Manziel: someone capable of making special things happen. Despite legit challenges from strong teams within the conference, nobody can credibly take the Sooners down this year. If these shadows remain unchanged, they’ll surely clinch a playoff berth.
Berth No. 3 of 4: Oklahoma
That leaves us with the last spot. In this scenario, three out of the eight are already in. Three of the remaining five are out. That leaves us with the remaining two: Wisconsin and Ohio State. “But wait,” you protest, “Ohio State already has two losses, one a both recent AND embarrassing one to Iowa.” A valid point you would raise, to be sure. But here’s the deal. The Buckeyes’ schedule is still much stronger than Wisconsin’s, for one. Whereas OSU had the guts to play a tough OU squad that, as already mentioned, shall surely be playoff-bound, Wisconsin padded their schedule with Utah State, Florida Atlantic, and a weak (for this year) BYU.
Moreover, IF Ohio State shows up ready to play, they can beat anybody. Would you want to coach head-to-head against Urban Meyer? I didn’t think so.
Finally, both Wisconsin and Ohio State, if both win out, are destined to butt heads in the Big Ten Championship game. They both need to beat Michigan to guarantee this scenario. Should they play each other for the B1G title, and should Ohio State actually triumph, Wisconsin shall be effectively eliminated. Why? Again, their relatively weak schedule without winning their own conference. Meanwhile, Ohio State will be the last team standing in the top eight in the current AP poll. Could winning the B1G over an undefeated team be enough to get them back into playoff contention? I would wager “yes.”
Berth No. 4 of 4: Ohio State
Yes, this scenario is contingent on many factors. Change one major factor (Bama loses to Auburn, for example), and it all falls apart. Wisconsin and Ohio State’s viabilities depend on both beating Michigan. Miami still needs to face Pittsburgh in the cold of late November at Heinz Field. After that, they must face down Clemson. Obviously, that’s a tall order.
If, however, all these things come to pass, it would be a nearly geographically-perfect playoff line-up. Alabama would represent the south. Miami could represent urban, coastal fans of the game. Ohio State could represent the Midwest, the Big Ten, and its demographic TV-viewing juggernaut along with it. Finally, Oklahoma could represent other parts of Middle America. Indeed, the only problem with this scenario is that it lacks a Pac-12 team. If it did, we would have perfection. Too bad the Pac-12 teams ended up cannibalizing themselves this year, but that could be the case with the B1G, too, depending on how things truly do come to pass. The only way we’ll know one way or the other is to keep lining them up and playing.
College Football Awards Week 11 (2017) November 13, 2017
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: Alabama, Arizona, Army, Auburn, Ball State, Butch Jones, Clemson, Coastal Carolina, Dan Mullen, Florida, Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech, Hurricanes, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Jeff Monken, Kansas State, Louisville, LSU, Mark Richt, Memphis, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Missouri, New Mexico, Nick Saban, North Carolina, North Texas, Northern Illinois, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Purdue, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, TCU, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Utah, Virginia Tech, Washington, Wyoming
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(Note: All rankings are current AP [week 11] unless otherwise noted.)
COACHES
Wish I were him: Mark Richt, Miami
Glad I’m not him: Kirby Smart, Georgia
Lucky guy: Nick Saban, Alabama
Poor guy: Dan Mullen, Mississippi State
Desperately seeking a wake-up call: (none)
Desperately seeking a P.R. man: Jeff Monken, Army
Desperately seeking sunglasses and a fake beard: Kirby Smart, Georgia
Desperately seeking … anything: Butch Jones, Tennessee
TEAMS
Thought you’d kick butt, you did: Texas A&M (defeated New Mexico 55-10)
Thought you’d kick butt, you didn’t: Alabama (defeated No. 16 Mississippi State 31-24)
Thought you’d get your butt kicked, you did: Tennessee (lost to Missouri 50-17)
Thought you’d get your butt kicked, you didn’t: Mississippi State (lost to No. 2 Alabama 31-24)
Thought you wouldn’t kick butt, you did: Ohio State (defeated No. 12 Michigan State 48-3)
Dang, they’re good: Ohio State
Dang, they’re bad: Georgia Southern
Can’t Stand Prosperity: Georgia
Did the season start? Virginia Tech
Can the season end? Florida
Can the season never end? Miami
GAMES
Play this again: No. 2 Alabama 31, No. 16 Mississippi State 24
Play this again, too: No. 15 Oklahoma State 49, No. 21 Iowa State 42
Never play this again: Northern Illinois 63, Ball State 17
What? Georgia Tech 28, No. 17 Virginia Tech 22
Huh? Stanford 30, No. 9 Washington 22
Are you kidding me?? No. 7 Miami 41, No. 3 Notre Dame 8
Oh – my – God: No. 10 Auburn 40, No. 1 Georgia 17
NEXT WEEK
(rankings are current AP (post-week 11, pre-week 12)
Ticket to die for: None, except maybe Michigan @ No. 8 Wisconsin
Best non-Power Five vs. Power Five matchup: Western Carolina @ North Carolina
Best non-Power Five matchup: Fresno State @ Wyoming also: Army @ North Texas
Upset alert: Utah @ No. 9 Washington
Must win: Texas @ West Virginia also: No. 8 TCU @ No. 5 Oklahoma
Offensive explosion: SMU @ No. 18 Memphis
Defensive struggle: No. 21 LSU @ Tennessee
Great game no one is talking about: Arizona @ Oregon
Intriguing coaching matchup: Jim Harbaugh of Michigan vs. Paul Chryst of Wisconsin
Who’s bringing the body bags? Citadel @ No. 4 Clemson
Why are they playing? Wofford @ South Carolina also: Mercer @ No. 1 Alabama
Plenty of good seats remaining: Coastal Carolina @ Idaho
They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? Louisiana-Monroe @ No. 10 Auburn
Week 11 Random Thoughts:
Is it safe to say that Miami (Fla.) is back as a top-tier program? Already ranked No. 7 going into this weekend’s game, they crushed No. 3 Notre Dame at home, 41-8. They remain undefeated in one of the toughest conferences in football, now at the No. 2 spot in the AP Poll (Clemson is now at No. 3). If these shadows remain unchanged, they could face Clemson in the ACC Championship game early next month (ticket-to-die-for in the making?). If they win that, it would be close to certain that the Hurricanes would be in the playoffs, and rightly so. So yeah, sure looks that way.
It’s a good thing I listed Butch Jones as “Desperately seeking…anything” because as of today (Nov. 12), he got the ax at Tennessee. This became an increasingly urgent necessity as the season progressed. Despite the solid recruiting classes Jones brought in at Tennessee, he was unable to translate the talent into wins on the field. Barely winning over lousy UMass was cause for concern. Losing a squeaker to a mediocre Florida was bad enough. Losing to Georgia in a blowout – one of the worst in recent program history – was a major embarrassment. Losing to Kentucky – something the Volunteers very rarely do – was obviously unacceptable. Getting crushed by hated Alabama became inevitable – which didn’t make it any less unpalatable to the Tennessee faithful. The final nail in Jones’ coffin was a blowout loss to Missouri, of all teams. So, Jones is now out at Tennessee. Time for the replacement coaching search games to begin!
While this was a great weekend for college football (despite some unexpectedly one-sided outcomes – looking your way, Georgia and Notre Dame), next week shall be something of a let-down. The only game resembling a marquee matchup is No. 19 Michigan vs No. 5 Wisconsin. Half of the SEC is wasting the upcoming weekend with body bag games. To wit: Mercer plays at Alabama; Wofford plays South Carolina in an annual late-season affair (why??); Auburn dialed up a “w” with Louisiana-Monroe. Florida would also be included, except for the fact that UAB has a much better record (7-3) than the Gators (3-6). Not to be outdone, Clemson had to get in on the act by playing the Citadel.
At least the other half of the conference was exercising some degree of sense by scheduling real games. Kentucky plays at Georgia. LSU plays at Tennessee, which will no doubt further contribute to the Volunteers’ collective misery. Texas A&M plays at Ole Miss in what should be a good game. Missouri, surprisingly offensively spry, plays at Vanderbilt.
Purdue’s bowl eligibility hopes for the year are quickly dwindling. They currently stand at 4-6, and have to win out over both Iowa and Indiana. Whereas the latter seems winnable, the former, not so much. The Boilers did themselves no favors by losing on the road to conference cellar-dweller Rutgers, then blowing a 4th-quarter lead at home to Nebraska. The good news is that if Purdue ends up at 5-7, they’ll still have won more games than the entire Hazell era combined.
All that said, there are some decent games that might not be of huge consequence. Syracuse plays Louisville, for example, and Kansas State plays Oklahoma State. Arizona at Oregon is also a good match-up, and Utah has the potential to upset Washington. So there are enjoyable games this weekend, we’ll just have to search more diligently than usual for them.
College Football Awards Week 10 (2017) November 6, 2017
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, B1G, Big Ten, Bill Connelly, Bret Bielema, Brian Kelly, Buckeyes, Bulldogs, Coastal Carolina, David Beaty, Florida, Gators, Georgia, Hawkeyes, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, James Franklin, Joel Klatt, Kansas, Kansas State, Kirk Ferentz, Longhorns, Louisiana, Maine, Mark Richt, Miami, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Missouri, Neal Brown, Nevada, New Mexico, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Ohio U, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Penn State, Purdue, San Diego State, San Jose State, South Carolina, Stanford, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Toledo, Troy, UCLA, UMass, Urban Meyer, Utah, Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin
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(Note: All rankings are current AP [week 10] unless otherwise noted.)
COACHES
Wish I were him: Kirk Ferentz, Iowa
Glad I’m not him: Urban Meyer, Ohio State
Lucky guy: Bret Bielema, Arkansas
Poor guy: James Franklin, Penn State
Desperately seeking a wake-up call: (none)
Desperately seeking a P.R. man: Neal Brown, Troy
Desperately seeking sunglasses and a fake beard: Urban Meyer, Ohio State
Desperately seeking … anything: David Beaty, Kansas
TEAMS
Thought you’d kick butt, you did: San Diego State (defeated San Jose State 52-7)
Thought you’d kick butt, you didn’t: Arkansas (defeated Coastal Carolina 39-38)
Thought you’d get your butt kicked, you did: San Jose State (lost to San Diego State 52-7)
Thought you’d get your butt kicked, you didn’t: UMass (lost to No. 16 Mississippi State 34-23)
Thought you wouldn’t kick butt, you did: Missouri (defeated Florida 45-16)
Dang, they’re good: Alabama
Dang, they’re bad: Kansas
Can’t Stand Prosperity: Ohio State
Did the season start? Stanford
Can the season end? Florida
Can the season never end? Michigan State
GAMES
Play this again: No. 24 Michigan State 27, No. 7 Penn State 24
Play this again, too: Kansas State 42, Texas Tech 35
Never play this again: San Diego State 52, San Jose State 7
What? No. 25 Washington State 25, No. 21 Stanford 21
Huh? West Virginia 20, No. 15 Iowa State 16
Are you kidding me?? No. 24 Michigan State 27, No. 7 Penn State 24
Oh – my – God: Iowa 55, No. 6 Ohio State 24
NEXT WEEK
(rankings are current AP (post-week 10, pre-week 11)
Ticket to die for: No. 3 Notre Dame @ No. 10 Miami also: No. 8 TCU @ No. 5 Oklahoma
Best non-Power Five vs. Power Five matchup: Louisiana @ Ole Miss
Best non-Power Five matchup: Toledo @ Ohio U
Upset alert: No. 25 Washington State @ Utah
Must win: No. 24 Michigan State @ No. 6 Ohio State also: No. 8 TCU @ No. 5 Oklahoma
Offensive explosion: West Virginia @ Kansas State
Defensive struggle: Florida @ South Carolina
Great game no one is talking about: No. 20 Oklahoma State @ Iowa State
Intriguing coaching matchup: Brian Kelly of Notre Dame vs. Mark Richt of Miami (FL)
Who’s bringing the body bags? No. 22 Arizona @ Oregon State
Why are they playing? New Mexico @ Texas A&M
Plenty of good seats remaining: San Jose State @ Nevada
They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? Maine @ UMass
Week 10 Random Thoughts:
As Bill Connelly reminds this time of the year, November is for everything. Teams are what they are at this point of the season. A loss now can sink a team’s season. With that in mind, let us examine the following:
Just when we thought Ohio State had a shot at the playoffs after a big win over Penn State, this week, the Buckeyes turned right around and spoiled it for all of us. It’s not that they lost, it’s how they lost that’s the true disgrace.
Anyone with any discernment knew that Iowa would be a tough out for any team. They took Penn State to the very wire, after all. Perhaps too many on Ohio State’s team thought they were on Easy Street after taking down the Nittany Lions last week. Guess again, guys. The Buckeyes failed to score in the whole second half until 4:37 remained in regulation. By then, it was too little, too late. The Hawkeyes triumphed in dramatic fashion, 55-24, giving the Buckeyes their worst loss since 1994. Ouch. Not exactly a playoff-caliber performance, guys. Speaking of which, kiss those hopes goodbye for the year, and let that be a lesson to all of us to always bring one’s “A” game.
Remember when Texas seemed to have found an offense last week against Baylor? Yeah, that was a false alarm: fool’s gold. The Longhorns only mustered a single touchdown (2nd quarter) the entire game, losing it 24-7. The Horns’ defense was impressive, all things considered, but their offense is frankly non-existent. Why? Much of it revolved around a young offensive line that is still trying to gel. Even if QB Shane Buechele had time in the pocket, his receivers failed to get separation (some blame the offensive coordinator for failing to scheme properly). Their own self-inflicted mistakes that translated to penalties obviously did them no favors, either. It all added up to an incoherent mess on the offensive side of the ball, and the score at game’s end showed it.
This weekend has rightly been dubbed “elimination weekend,” but that could surely apply to other weekends to come this month. Notre Dame has yet to play resurgent Miami, and after that they must face Stanford: both are on the road.
Penn State did themselves no favors by losing to Michigan State on the road. With that loss, their playoff aspirations for the year are over, but in the Nittany Lions’ defense, the game was much closer (21-14) than Ohio State’s disastrous outing at Iowa. The long rain delay in the middle of the game likely interfered with their rhythms, too.
Speaking again of Ohio State, they have no time to lick their wounds, as the Spartans come calling this upcoming weekend.
South Carolina has quietly become bowl-eligible with six wins, despite their most recent loss, on the road, to border rival Georgia. To be sure, the Bulldogs are currently ranked No. 2 in the playoffs, so the loss, on paper, was expected. Now the Gamecocks face a depleted Florida Gators squad, at home, where the odds are likely they can amass win No. 7 for the year.
Georgia, meanwhile, faces a potential pitfall when they venture into No. 14 Auburn to engage in “the oldest rivalry in the South”.
Washington State squeaked by Stanford. Now they must face Utah, who crushed UCLA, 48-17. Here is yet another potential upset in the making. Joel Klatt, are you paying attention yet?
In another window into the current state of Big Ten football, resurgent Purdue is, currently, a slight underdog to Northwestern. Another potential conference “Toilet Bowl” awaits with Illinois facing Indiana (the latter’s record is deceptive, though). Also, Iowa now has to face undefeated Wisconsin; not a good time to be on Cloud Nine after taking down the mighty Buckeyes.
College Football Awards Week 9 (2017) October 30, 2017
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, B1G, Ball State, Baylor, Big Ten, Boilers, Boston College, Bulldogs, Butch Jones, Central Florida, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, David Shaw, Florida, Florida State, Gamecocks, Gary Patterson, Gator Bowl, Gators, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Houston, Iowa, Iowa State, Irish, James Franklin, Jeff Brohm, Jim McElwain, Jimbo Fisher, Justin Fuente, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Mark Dantonio, Mark Richt, Miami, Miami (Florida), Miami Hurricanes, Michigan State, Mike Riley, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Oregon State, Penn State, Purdue, SMU, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Miss, Stanford, Steve Addazio, TCU, Tennessee, Texas, Toledo, UCF, UMass, Urban Meyer, Virginia Tech, Washington State, West Virginia, Will Muschamp
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(Note: All rankings are current AP [week 9] unless otherwise noted.)
COACHES
Wish I were him: Urban Meyer, Ohio State
Glad I’m not him: James Franklin, Penn State
Lucky guy: David Shaw, Stanford also: Mike Riley, Nebraska
Poor guy: Jeff Brohm, Purdue
Desperately seeking a wake-up call: Gary Patterson, TCU
Desperately seeking a P.R. man: Steve Addazio, Boston College
Desperately seeking sunglasses and a fake beard: Jim McElwain, Florida
Desperately seeking … anything: Jimbo Fisher, Florida State
TEAMS
Thought you’d kick butt, you did: UCF (defeated Austin Peay 73-33)
Thought you’d kick butt, you didn’t: Stanford (defeated Oregon State 15-14)
Thought you’d get your butt kicked, you did: Baylor (lost to Texas 38-7)
Thought you’d get your butt kicked, you didn’t: North Carolina (lost to No. 8 Miami 24-19)
Thought you wouldn’t kick butt, you did: Boston College (defeated Florida State 35-3)
Dang, they’re good: Georgia
Dang, they’re bad: Baylor
Can’t Stand Prosperity: TCU
Did the season start? Louisville
Can the season end? Florida State
Can the season never end? Ohio State
GAMES
Play this again: No. 6 Ohio State 39, No. 2 Penn State 38
Play this again, too: Northwestern 39, No. 18 Michigan State 31, 3OT
Never play this again: Toledo 58, Ball State 17
What? Houston 28, No. 17 South Florida 24
Huh? Northwestern 39, No. 18 Michigan State 31, 3OT
Are you kidding me?? No. 6 Ohio State 39, No. 2 Penn State 38
Oh – my – God: No. 25 Iowa State 14, No. 4 TCU 7
NEXT WEEK
(rankings are current AP (post-week 9, pre-week 10)
Ticket to die for: No. 1 Alabama @ No. 19 LSU
Best non-Power Five vs. Power Five matchup: Western Kentucky @ Vanderbilt
Best non-Power Five matchup: No. 15 UCF @ SMU
Upset alert: Texas @ TCU also: No. 18 Stanford @ No. 25 Washington State
Must win: No. 13 Virginia Tech @ No. 9 Miami
Offensive explosion: No. 8 Oklahoma State @ No. 11 Oklahoma State
Defensive struggle: Florida @ Missouri
Great game no one is talking about: No. 25 Iowa State @ No. 22 West Virginia
Intriguing coaching matchup: James Franklin of Penn State vs Mark Dantonio of Michigan State
Also: Justin Fuente of Virginia Tech vs. Mark Richt of Miami
Who’s bringing the body bags? UMass @ Mississippi State
Why are they playing? Southern Miss @ Tennessee
Plenty of good seats remaining: Charlotte @ Old Dominion
They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas
Week 9 Random Thoughts:
The Ohio State-Penn State game was one that certainly lived up to its hype. Its implicit billing as the game of the year certainly was that, with stakes no less high than a possible playoff berth on the line. Buckeyes are now ranked No. 3 and have the opportunity to control their own destiny. Three out of the four remaining games are going to be challenges, however. Iowa is up next (remember, they took Penn State down to the wire), followed by Michigan State (a deceptively deadly team as of late), a potential break with Illinois, with Michigan (self-explanatory) to cap off the season. Urban Meyer needs to keep the team focused these next four weeks for a trip to Indianapolis for the B1G championship.
In the meantime OSU, ditch those grungy-looking all-gray uniforms. They looked horrible.
Few things are as distasteful as seeing your team blow a 4th-quarter lead. Purdue did just that at home against Nebraska. First they embarrassed themselves in a defensive struggle on the road against lowly Rutgers, now this. This upcoming week’s game against Illinois is surely a winnable one, but then again, that’s what we all thought about Rutgers and Nebraska a couple of weeks ago. Worse yet, Northwestern has been resurgent as of late, and Iowa is as competitive as ever. Indiana might still be a winnable game, and thus it is not reasonable for the Boilers to emerge at season’s end 5-7, which is a still a step in the right direction from the disaster that was the Darrell Hazell era.
As predicted, Texas got well on Baylor. The respite will not last, as next game they face TCU, arguably their toughest opponent of the year, in Fort Worth, no less. Moreover, the Horned Frogs will be quite angry after just losing – unexpectedly – their first game of the year to newly-ranked Iowa State.
Let us hold our horses about Notre Dame. Yes, they have only one loss, to current No. 2 Georgia, no less, and their strength of schedule is formidable. But they’re also enjoying a senior-laden offensive line with a limited offense. Furthermore, the Irish have yet to face two of their toughest opponents not named Georgia. In two weeks they face a resurgent Miami Hurricanes, and they close out the season on the road at Stanford. Eastern Timezone teams tend not to fare very well on the road against West Coast teams. Just sayin’. In the meantime, cool the hype on Notre Dame until their season concludes.
Speaking of Georgia, they rose to the occasion yet again this year by handily defeating Florida. In recent years, the Bulldogs have struggled in their annual rivalry games against the Gators. This time, the Dawgs kept that unpleasant past in the rearview mirror. Seemingly treating it like any other game, they went into the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville and took care of business, so much so (42-7) that Jim McElwain might be in danger of losing his job. Now ranked No. 2, they potentially control their own destiny. But next game up is South Carolina, a potential trap game, as Will Muschamp has coached the Gamecocks to a surprising 6-2 start. Moreover, the remaining three games after that – in order, Auburn, Kentucky, and Georgia Tech – each offer their own unique challenges. If the Bulldogs remain in playoff contention, they shall have to earn it.
Oh, and Tennessee lost…again…this time to another rival of sorts, Kentucky. As of this writing, officials at the University of Tennessee are contemplating Butch Jones’ tenure. Many of us are wondering what has taken them this long to get to this point, let alone giving Jones the ax.
Where Joel Klatt is right and wrong about Notre Dame October 28, 2017
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: Alabama, Ara Parseghian, Brian Kelly, Colin Cowherd, David Cutcliffe, David Shaw, Duke, football, FOX, FS1, James Franklin, Jim Harbaugh, Joel Klatt, Michigan, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pat Fitzgerald, Penn State, Stanford, Urban Meyer, Vanderbilt
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Joel Klatt is a rising star in college football broadcasting, and rightfully so. His analysis during the games he helps broadcast of FOX is very insightful. His talent makes him the perfect up-and-coming asset that an up-and-coming network like FS1 needs right now. Klatt’s sit-down interviews with regular TV show hosts on FS1 are just as informative, and his input always makes for great conversation. Any engaged listener can always walk away from listening to such interviews thinking that their understanding of the college game has deepened.
On the matter of the state of highly-ranked academic powerhouse schools in the “Power Five” of college football, however, the veracity of his analysis is mixed. It all centers around his understanding of the current state of Notre Dame football.
As Colin Cowherd of FS1 has noted for years, Notre Dame flourished at a time when it was one of the very few programs that was reliably put on national TV every week of the season. All that changed when sports networks decided to start broadcasting more teams consistently in the 1990s. With that, Notre Dame’s monopoly on national attention soon evaporated. Soon, ND had to compete with schools whose campuses offered warmer winters and prettier coeds, institutions such as Texas, Florida, USC, LSU, Florida State, Georgia, and the like. None of these schools had the same level of academic requirements as ND, either, meaning it is much easier to admit recruits there as well.
None of this is to say that cold-weather schools cannot do well at the highest level, and Klatt quickly points this out. On the contrary, in the 2014-2015 playoffs, Urban Meyer’s Ohio State team beat out a tough Alabama squad to play for the national title. Indeed, the Buckeyes handily defeated Oregon to win it. Moreover, Michigan has been considerably on the rebound since they hired Jim Harbaugh, and Penn State has returned to national power status under recruiting wizard James Franklin.
Even ND hired a highly-capable coach in Brian Kelly in December of 2009. By the 2012 season, he took Notre Dame to a national title game. To be sure, they got crushed my Alabama, 42-14, and in highsight, much of ND’s high ranking was a product of wishful thinking. This season (2017) they are currently top-ten in the rankings (No. 9 as of Oct. 27), but they have reached their ceiling with a senior-dominated team, and even they lost at home to an even better team in Georgia.
Moreover, other academically-rigid schools have been winning games (e.g., Stanford), and in some cases, have started to win more than they have in a long time (e.g., Duke). So clearly schools with high academic standards can win some games. So why is Notre Dame still limited in this day at age?
It turns out that a school with cold weather and high academic standards does not automatically mean that the football team will be a conference/Power Five doormat, provided that you have the right coach. Northwestern seems to have that, for example, in Pat Fitzgerald. In the Wildcats’ case, it helps that the campus in is the vibrant, urban setting of Evanston, Ill., right on the edge of Chicago proper and a half-hour commuter train ride into downtown and all the scads of action that huge city has to offer.
In the case of Duke, they are in Durham, N.C., part of the “Research Triangle”, an area with much growth and dynamism as of late. Plus, the winters are much milder there than they are in the Rustbelt. It also helps that Duke found a capable coach in David Cutcliffe.
In the case of Stanford, which is even more academically stringent than Notre Dame, it enjoys the advantage of the idyllic beauty of Silicon Valley. Temperatures in December can sometimes peak in the lower 70s. Stanford University is one of the most architecturally amazing college campuses in the world. Even with the extra recruiting hurdle of having to admit each player to the school as a student before they can sing a letter of intent to join the team, David Shaw still manages to make them competitive in the Pac-12 north division, sometimes winning the division outright.
In addition to Notre Dame’s cold weather setting and academic rigidity, two other factors hinder the program today. One is the religious overtones (a turn-off to recruits who have far more options today, both in the Big Ten and also the warm-weather schools). The other is that its relatively isolated. It takes almost two hours to drive to the heart of Chicago. The next-closest spot of major population is Fort Wayne, Ind., followed by Toledo, Ohio. Neither Northwestern, Duke, Stanford, or even Vanderbilt have to contend with those two recruiting hindrances.
These factors, all combined, have hurt Notre Dame’s brand in the eyes of many coveted recruits today. Joel Klatt acknowledges the earlier-mentioned factors (cold weather and academics), but has ignored these latter items, which combine to make a considerable difference.
To be sure, there are schools even more isolated than ND. Nebraska is geographically worse off, as is Penn State. The latter is back in contention, again, thanks to the recruiting prowess of James Franklin (it helps that PSU is arguably the most amazing campus in the B1G, and Beaver Stadium is the second-largest stadium in the country by capacity).
Is Klatt correct in that Notre Dame is still a strong brand? Yes, but only for legacy/tradition reasons. Because of their past success, they are still a legitimate “traditional power”, but that legacy has increasingly less cache to marquee recruits who might look askance at Michiana’s dreary winters, the school’s religious overtones, etc.
The real take-away from this discussion is how insane ND fans are who call for Brian Kelly’s ouster. Without him, the team would be lucky to go 7-5 this season, as opposed to the top-ten rankings the team currently enjoys. Just to observe, the Irish will be lucky to win two of their next four games. But that aside, the fan base’s insanity is a function of unrealistic expectations that need to be tempered in a day and age where the Rustbelt is no longer the heart of the American economy and talented football players have far more options of where to play than they did during the days of Ara Parseghian.
In conclusion, can Notre Dame still win games? Absolutely. As Fitzerald, Shaw, Cutcliffe, Harbaugh, and Franklin have demonstrated, the right coach at the right place proves that winning football games in a prestigious academic setting is indeed possible. Brian Kelly is surely the optimal coach for Notre Dame, and his accomplishments are nearly miraculous in the context of his strategic difficulties. Given the aforementioned problems hindering Notre Dame, the program is at best an eight-win program. To win any more than eight ought to exceed expectations if those, too, are properly tempered in the context of the current age.
