Teams that hit the wall November 29, 2012
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: 'Canes, ACC, Alabama, Arkansas, Austin, Ball State, Baylor, BCS, Belk Bowl, Big 12, Big East, Big XII, Bobcats, Bowl, Bowling Green, Bulldogs, Butch Jones, Cardinals, Charlie Strong, Cincinnati, Clemson, college, Dan Mullen, Dana Holgorsen, Duke, Egg Bowl, Florida State, football, Frank Solich, game, Hurricanes, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kent State, Longhorns, Louisville, LSU, MAC, Miami, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountaineers, MSU, NCAA, North Carolina, Ohio U, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Pittsburgh, Rebels, Rutgers, Scarlet Knights, SEC, Southern Miss, Stanford, Syracuse, TCU, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, U of L, USF, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, WVU, Yeoman
add a comment
Ohio U: The Bobcats were off to a great start under Frank Solich. They won seven consecutive games, and were even ranked No. 24 going into the Miami (Ohio) game on Oct. 27. After that game, they were undefeated no more. The team lost the next four of five games, including their last one to currently No. 18 Kent State. That loss was understandable, even excusable. Losing to Ball State the previous week? Less understood, even less excusable. But losing to Bowling Green? No excuse at all. Perhaps the Bobcats just ran out of energy, which is one form of hitting the proverbial wall.
Correction: A well-informed, experienced observer brought something else to my attention regarding Ohio U. The biggest reason they hit the proverbial wall was injuries, especially injuries to their offensive line. By season’s end, they were playing third-string linemen without any subs — brutal! Upon further review, that might explain their loss to Bowling Green after all!
Mississippi State: Poor MSU (the Magnolia State MSU, not the Great Lakes State MSU). They try so hard, but they try to excel in the most brutal of all college football neighborhoods. Dan Mullen has done the Yeoman’s work making the Bulldogs more than respectable, and making their fan base believe in the team’s potential. Seven consecutive games, seven consecutive wins: so far, so good. Then came the game at Alabama: automatic loss. Fair enough. Still ranked No. 16, they were to play Texas A&M at home. That turned out not so well, either. The next game was at LSU; care to guess how that turned out? The thing was, after the big win over Arkansas (45-14), one would think that the worst was behind them. After all, in the Egg Bowl (their traditional rivalry game against Mississippi), they were favored. Ole Miss is mediocre, and Mississippi State has had, all things considered, a great season. But then they inexplicably lost to the Rebels 41-24. What gives? They obviously hit the wall, but how? Was it loss of energy, in clear case of Ohio U, or was it just the more brutal part of their schedule? The latter cannot explain things alone, since, hello, they lost to Ole Miss, and though the Rebels have improved, they have not improved that much. The answer might therefore be, a little of both. Let us hope Dan Mullen can allow for some of the energy in the team to recover for the bowl game.
West Virginia: The Mountaineers were flying high after their big debut in the Big XII, beating Baylor at home in an offensive explosion for the ages, 70-63. The following week, they journeyed to Austin to take on then-No. 11 Texas, where they beat the host Longhorns 48-45. It went downhill for five straight weeks after that, with consecutive losses to Texas Tech (49-14), Kansas State (55-14), TCU (39-38), Oklahoma State (55-34), and Oklahoma (50-49). Welcome to the Big XII, Dana Holgorsen. The obvious wall WVU hit was tough schedule, plain and simple. That said, five tough losses obviously took something out of the Mountaineers as well, since they had to struggle to beat Iowa State this past weekend. Whether they have recovered any energy at all will be demonstrated when they play Kansas this upcoming week for what should be a fairly easy clean-up win.
Louisville: So much for running the table for Louisville after losing to Syracuse 45-17 on the road for their tenth game. To be sure, most of their wins up to that point were a little more than close for comfort, such as beating North Carolina only 39-34, beating Southern Miss 21-17 (the rain notwithstanding), or beating awful South Florida only 27-25. With such a pattern of wins, one would think an ugly loss would be inevitable, if only to get it out of their system. Sadly, whatever ailed the Cardinals in Syracuse did not yet pass, for the following game, they coughed up another loss at home to Connecticut in the third overtime. Worse yet, they only have until this Thursday to bounce back on the road against Rutgers in order to win a BCS bowl berth. The Scarlet Knights lost badly that same day to Pittsburgh, so both teams are in a must-win situation. But with the recent pattern of play, the concern remains that U of L might have lost their energy. Thus, the upcoming proposition is dicey at best. Charlie Strong might want to go easy on his boys so they can get their energy.
Addendum 12-07-12 — Duke: Part of me says “poor Duke,” while the other part of me says “hey, all things considered, they’re doing pretty well.” But nevertheless, they were flying high during the middle of the season, or high by Duke standards at least! Throught Oct. 6, they were 5-1, with the one loss coming to them on the road against Stanford. Any reasonable person would quickly excuse that! Then the next week, they lossed to Virginia Tech, 41-20. Fair enough. Moreover, credit goes to this team, as the following week, they rebounded to beat North Carolina 33-30. Then came four consecutive losses in their last four regular season games, first to Florida State (48-7; imagine that!), then to Clemson (56-20), then to Georgian Tech (42-24 — keep in mind that the Yellow Jackets run out of the flexbone!), and then lossed a shootout to Miami (52-45). In the first three out of four, they were clearly out-manned. The last loss could be attributed to having too much stuffing beat out of them by the first three of those four teams, hence having nothing left in the tank against the ‘Canes. But at least they got a Belk Bowl berth, and have a decent shot at winning it, too, since Cincinnati’s head coach Butch Jones just took the Tennessee job.
Teams that could beat Notre Dame November 22, 2012
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: 2012, A&M, Aaron Murray, Aggies, Alabama, Bama, Bayou Bengals, BCS, Bowl, Brian Kelly, Buckeye, Bulldogs, Capital One, Cardinal, college, Cotton, Crimson Tide, defense, Fighting, Florida, football, Gamecocks, Gators, Georgia, Glendale, Independence, Iowa, Irish, Jadeveon Clowney, Jeff Driskel, Johnny Manziel, Kevin Sumlin, LSU, miracle, Mississippi State, NCAA, ND, Nick Saban, Notre Dame, offense, Ohio State, Our Lady, Pasadena, Penn State, Purdue, SEC, South Bend, South Carolina, Stanford, Steve Spurrier, Sugar, Tennessee, Texas, Tigers, UAB, Urban Meyer, Wisconsin
add a comment
From the latest edition of Sports Illustrated. The Latin phrase at the top translates to “The Miracle of Our Lady 2012”
In case some dear readers have been hanging out in a cave for an extended period of time, Notre Dame is now the no. 1 college football team in the nation for the first time in 19 years to the month. Given the national following the Fighting Irish have, there has been more than a bit of hoopla over this development. Without going into obscene details, I can see Regis Philbin and other ND-loving celebrities losing control of themselves right about now. But just because the Irish are no. 1 by default, does not mean they are invincible? Of course not. Yes, they are undefeated; yes, they have beaten some decent teams. To be fair, Notre Dame is formidable. Brian Kelly has done an incredible job of bringing in a talented receiving corps for the offense while massively upgrading the team’s talent defensively. Their front five and front seven are both sufficiently physical to compete with anybody. But there are teams out there that would give ND fits, if not ruin their season outright if the two played each other. I therefore submit this list of teams to a candid world:
Practically sure things:
LSU: Without a doubt, LSU would give Notre Dame all it would want and then some. Over the past decade, there is no team that has been known to show up in big games and win them like LSU. Yes, they lost at home to Alabama this year. Yes, they lost the national championship game to Alabama at the end of last season. Yet ought these not to be a strong commentary on the Crimson Tide’s prowess rather then to the Bayou Bengals’ detriment? The Tigers have won two national titles within a decade. Aside from the BCS game this past season, they have won almost all of their bowl games*. Stretch the scale of time back to 15 years, and every time the Irish have played the Tigers in a bowl game (the 1997 Independence Bowl, the 2006-’07 Sugar Bowl), LSU has won both games handily. The odds, talent, and the mindset are all in LSU’s favor. Notre Dame ought to pray that the two teams do not meet anytime soon.
*LSU’s only bowl losses were to a tough Texas team in the 2003 Cotton Bowl, and inexplicable losses in the Capital One Bowl to both Iowa (30-20 on Jan. 1, 2005), and Penn State (19-17 on Jan. 1, 2010).
Stanford: Don’t laugh. Yes, they already lost to Notre Dame this year, but by that same token, let us put things into perspective. A), the game was in South Bend, B) the weather was horrible, C) what did the Cardinal in was two consecutive horrible play calls on the goal line in overtime. Now imagine the two teams playing each other again, this time on a neutral field, and reasonable weather. Stanford has the personnel to fight the Irish effectively on the line on both sides of the ball. They sport a very physical front seven, and their offense is ground-and-pound. This approach was two horribly-called plays shy of working under very adverse circumstances on the road. Imagine how well it would work in, say, Glendale, Ariz., or Pasadena.
Texas A&M: The Aggies have proven that they can move the ball on tough defenses. Quarterback Johnny Manziel has gotten better and better as the season has progressed. They moved the ball effectively on Alabama, after all. Moreover, Coach Kevin Sumlin has proven to be an excellent motivator in getting his men ready for big games. Some of their margins of victory are impressive. For example, they beat a respected Mississippi State squad 38-13, and then turned around the following week and beat then-no. 1 Alabama. What this tells me is that you can count on consistent play from A&M at this stage of the season. That, plus quick defense and superior quarterback play add up to being too much for the Irish to handle.
Ohio State: Yes, Brian Kelly has proven to be one of the best coaches in the college game. But so has Urban Meyer, and his resume of winning big games with more teams, one could argue, trumps Kelly’s. Never count out Meyer in big games. Moreover, once he brings in more of his own style of players, they will execute his spread offense all the more effectively. True, the Buckeyes were playing some teams too closely for comfort earlier in the year. After all, they only scored 29 points on abysmal UAB, of all teams! But lately the offense runs like a well-oiled machine. During their last games, they have averaged scoring 49 points each. Their lower scores during that span were 29 points (where Purdue’s defense actually showed up) and 21 points against Wisconsin’s traditionally stout ‘D.’ Notre Dame has not encountered anything like Ohio State’s offense throughout this memorable season of theirs.
Questionable teams:
Florida: Yes, their defense is practically impregnable. Good luck moving the ball on the Gators. The problem is on the offensive side of the ball. Jeff Driskel is a mediocre quarterback at best, and Notre Dame’s defense will not play dead simply because they are facing such a vaunted program. The game would be very low-scoring, with the outcome depending on how well Driskell executes, which is a crap-shoot.
South Carolina: On paper, this team should be a very formidable foe for the Irish. A strong running game, one of the best QB’s in college football in Connor Shaw, and defense with potential NFL talent, anchored by Jadeveon Clowney. The problem lies in consistency. The Gamecocks blew out a tough Georgia team earlier in the year, only to embarrass themselves at Florida a few weeks later. After that, they played an awful Tennessee much more closely than the game should have been, again, on paper (they won that game only 38-35). The Ol’ Ball Coach triumphing over the hot-headed Irish Coach will depend on the team that gave Georgia its only loss of the year to show up.
Georgia: The Bulldogs have an incredibly talented offense led by experienced, highly-rated quarterback Aaron Murray. On paper, the offense would give Notre Dame’s talented defense all they could handle. Defensively, Georgia sports a typical talented, ultra-quick SEC defense. The problem, like that of South Carolina, is consistency. Yes, they could theoretically take Notre Dame, but it all comes down to which team shows up against them: the team that beat Florida handily on an ostensibly neutral field, or the team that lost badly earlier on to South Carolina?
Alabama: Easily the least-questionable team within this category. The only reason they are in said category as opposed to the above one is that Texas A&M exposed a chink or two in their impressive armor. Their defense is talented, but young, and their offense is not the most imaginative of teams at their level. But let us say that the two – Bama and ND – end up playing each other in the BCS national championship game. Give Nick Saban a month to prepare – a luxury no team has had thus far, to be sure – and he is practically unstoppable. Advantage, Crimson Tide.
If any dear readers think other teams merit being added to the list, I would be more than happy to entertain suggestions! (P.S.: Happy Thanksgiving to one and all!)
Kansas State: Shades of 1998 November 18, 2012
Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.Tags: 1998, Alabama, Alamo Bowl, AP Poll, Austin, B1G, BCS, Big 12, Big Ten, Big XII, Bill Snyder, Boilermakers, Boilers, Bowl, bowl game, championship, Chicago, Chris Daniels, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Coaches Poll, Columbus, Dallas, Drew Brees, Fiesta Bowl, football, Houston, Jayhawks, K-State, Kansas, Kansas City, Kansas State, Manhattan, Marriott, Missouri, national championship, NCAA, Nebraska, New York, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Orange, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rose, San Antonio, Sugar, Texas, Texas A&M, Tigers, West Virginia, Wildcats
add a comment
We’ve seen this before. This is not the first time that Kansas State’s national championship run was ruined late in the season. The Wildcats made a similar run in 1998, defeating powerful Nebraska for the first time in 30 years, among other things. But come the Big XII championship game of that year, K-State overlooked a hungry Texas A&M, who snuck up on them and overtook them towards the end of the game. Although that bumped the Wildcats down to only no. 4 in the rankings, it was too late to get a decent consolation prize.
Everyone seemed to assume that K-State was a lock on the Fiesta Bowl (where the BCS national championship was to be held), so other teams got “locked-in” to other BCS bowl games (Orange, Sugar and Rose). With the Wildcats’ unexpected loss, they were left out in the proverbial cold, having to settle for the Alamo Bowl, then given the no. 4 pick for both the Big XII and the Big Ten. One would imagine that they would not be too happy with having to settle for that lesser prize. Purdue, their opponent for the 1998 Alamo Bowl, was, conversely, quite happy to make a return appearance in San Antonio (a fun town for a bowl game, fyi.), having won that bowl game the previous year. Though the Boilers were unranked and Kansas State was still the fourth-highest ranked team in the land, Purdue came in, what made the difference was that Purdue was happy to be there for the Dec. 29 game, K-State not so much.
Despite Coach Bill Snyder’s moderately happy-sounding speech at the kickoff luncheon the day before the game (Dec. 28, 1998) in a convention room of the Marriott Hotel in downtown San Antonio, where he assured both the Wildcat and Boilermaker fans in attendance that “we’re very much looking forward to playing the University of Purdue,” they sure did not give that impression on the field of play in the Alamodome the next evening. After a scoreless first quarter, Purdue drew (if you’ll pardon the expression) first blood in the second with a Drew Brees touchdown pass to Chris Daniels, and we never let up for the rest of the game. Only in the last few minutes did K-State manage to inch ahead of us with a touchdown of their own, but Purdue answered on the very next possession, marching right down the field and put it away for good. The Wildcats did have the last possession of the game, but with only less than a minute or so left in the game, they were unable to muster the necessary score. We triumphed in the end, 37-34. It was our biggest win in probably 20 years.
I say “we” because I was but a freshman student manager on the Purdue team during that game, witnessing all of this first-hand. The point in all of this, given recent developments, is that we’ve seen this scenario with K-State play out before. The Wildcats seem to be on the same path today. The only saving grace for K-State today is that this sudden, season-derailing loss from last night came earlier than when the Big XII championship game would be (there is no such game for this season, given the recent changes in conference membership). Hence, there is still time to salvage things with earning a more prestigious bowl berth than the booby prize of the Alamo Bowl from 14 years ago.
Yet another reason for K-State getting, well, hosed that year is a manifestation of certain perpetual handicaps against the program. Unlike traditional powers including, say, Alabama, Ohio State, Texas, or even Notre Dame, all of whom have strong, national fan bases, Kansas State, although a strong program, lacks that advantage. Strong fan bases equal strong money and clout, something the Wildcats continue to lack. Kansas State University is located in Manhattan, Kan., nicknamed “The Little Apple.” It is in the middle of nowhere, in a state that has the same reputation. It has no major market to tie itself to, unlike the Longhorns, who can not only claim Austin, but also Dallas and Houston. The Buckeyes claim Columbus, as well as Cincinnati and Cleveland. Even Notre Dame can claim Chicago, and to an extent, New York itself. K-State lacks that major market anchor, and that goes a long way towards its overall lack of relative clout. Even a team like West Virginia can claim Pittsburgh as its anchor market. Claiming Kansas City is a stretch for KSU, who must also share the area with the Kansas Jayhawks, along with the Missouri Tigers. Does that leave KSU Wichita? Geography has conspired to make the lack of clout an unsolvable problem for the Wildcats, as far as one can foresee.
But another key difference in scenarios today is that, in the wake of K-State being kicked down to the no. 4 bowl pick for the Big XII Conference in 1998 — much less the overall rankings — shortly thereafter the BCS implemented a rule that a team ranked that highly* would get an automatic berth into one of the BCS “big four,” instead of being relegated to a second or third-tier postseason game. Perhaps the Fiesta Bowl is not out of the question, boys, but you still must pass through the eye of the needle that is Texas in two weeks’ time.
*Although Kansas State was ranked no. 4 in both the AP and Coaches’ Polls, they were actually ranked no. 3 in the BCS.
intellectualgridiron 