2023-2024 Bowl Games Preview December 18, 2023

Posted by intellectualgridiron in Sports.
Tags: ACC, Alabama, Alamo, Arizona, B1G, Big XII, Brent Musburger, Brian Kelly, Clemson, college, Crimson Tide, Fiesta, football, Georgia, Huskies, Iowa, James Franklin, Jeff Brohm, Jim Harbaugh, Kansas, Kentucky, Lane Kiffin, liberty, Lincoln Riley, Longhorns, Louisville, LSU, Luke Fickell, Michael Penix Jr., Michigan, Missouri, NCAA, Nick Saban, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Orange, Oregon, Oregon State, Pac-12, Penn State, Rose, SEC, Sugar, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Toledo, UNLV, USC, Utah, Washingon, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wolverines, Wyoming
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Bowl game season is now upon us again.  While the bulk of the first day of games are not exactly eyeball-grabbing, there are a couple of potential interest, and many more that will keep us glued to the screen over the next couple of weeks.  So, without further ado, let us sort out the good, the really good, the so-so, and the downright ugly.  Note that the times of games are given in Eastern Standard Time.  Note also that not all bowl game are listed below:  some are so boring or pointless, it’s a waste to mention them.

Tickets to Die For:

No. 1 Michigan (13-0) vs No. 4 Alabama (12-1) in the Rose Bowl, Jan 1, 5:00 PM ESPN

Let us address the elephant in the room (see what I did there)?  This game is going to be epic.  Jim Harbaugh leads a Michigan team that is even stronger than the last Wolverine squad that won the national championship (1997).  In the opposing corner is Nick Saban’s Alabama team, which has grown stronger and more formidable with each passing week.  This game obviously doubles as an intriguing coaching matchup.  No, it is not the first time that these coaching legends have faced off, either.  The 2020 Citrus Bowl pitted the two together, with the Crimson Tide pounding the Wolverines 35-16.  But that was then, this is now.  Bama is not quite the juggernaut it was then, but could potentially return to that level.  Conversely, the Wolverines are considerably stronger since then, leading to an irresistible force meeting an immovable object.  Grab your snack food of choice and leave your belts behind, folks.  This one could be a ‘dandy’ to remember in the Granddaddy of Them All!  Also, can we please bring Brent Musburger out of retirement for this one?

No. 2 Washington (13-0) vs No. 3 Texas (12-1) in the Sugar Bowl, 8:45 PM ESPN

Let us not overlook this other matchup for the playoffs.  In contrast to the above listed playoff game, this one is likely to be high-octane on both sides of the ball.  Michael Penix Jr. leads an incredibly potent offense (they took down an incredibly strong Oregon squad not once, but twice with it).  Meanwhile, Texas is no offensive slouch, either, with playmakers in their receiving corps that an also light up the scoreboard.  Is there a potential mismatch?  Sadly, yes, what with the Longhorns’ secondary being a potential gap in their otherwise strong defensive armor.  Yet the Horns are bigger up front, on both sides of the ball.  That potential for their front seven to make sufficient pass rushes to contain Penix might explain why Texas is favored by four points.  Regardless, this matchup has the third-highest over-under of any bowl game this season at 63, and is an obvious double for an offensive explosion.   

No. 5 Georgia (12-1) vs No. 6 Florida State (13-0) in the Orange Bowl, Dec. 30, 4:00 ESPN

Perhaps we are to call this the Consolation Bowl?  How about the Spurned Contestants Bowl?  Both teams had reasonable claims to be in the playoffs, if not the best claims compared to other teams.  At any rate, on paper this matchup is very juicy.  In reality, things are more complicated (aren’t they always)?  The reason why the Seminoles got left out of the playoffs was not due to their record, but rather due to their recent performances.  Yes, the reason behind that is a tragic one:  their star QB, Jordan Travis, had a season-ending injury, in another illustration of the potential cruelty of November in the college game.  Since then, their offensive output has plummeted.  This leads me to predict, with a giant asterisk, that the Bulldogs could crush the Seminoles.  The asterisk comes in the form of a mitigating factor:  how motivated is Georgia to play up to their potential?  This is more than a valid concern for college football postseason games in recent years, what with sit-outs (departing seniors not wanting to risk injury and thus risk NFL draft capital), players entering the transfer portal, etc.  Perhaps those mitigating factors might even the odds after all.

Best Power Five vs. Non-Power Five Matchup

No. 8 Oregon (11-2) vs No. 23 Liberty (13-0) in the Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 1, 1:00 ESPN

This designation/categorization could not be more obvious.  Too bad that the Ducks’ level of competition is orders of magnitude greater than that of the Flames.  So, on paper, Oregon might crush Liberty, but it nevertheless could provide a nice laboratory experiment of what happens when a playoff-potential team pits itself against a stronger-than-normal mid-major team.  Oh, and with an over-under of 65.5, this clearly doubles as an offensive explosion, too.

Best non-Power Five Matchup:

Toledo (11-2) vs Wyoming (8-4) in the Arizona Bowl, Dec. 30, 4:30 PM ESPN

The MAC champ butts heads with the Mountain West champ.  Speaking of lab experiments, this one is interesting, too.

Upset Alerts:

No. 7 Ohio State (11-1) vs No. 9 Missouri (10-2) in the Cotton Bowl, Dec. 29, 8:00 PM ESPN

On paper, the respective rankings alone should make for a good game.  But the sit-outs and transfers on Ohio State’s part leaves the game in Mizzou’s favor, but only by 2.5 points.  On the other hand, many fans remain skeptical about the Tigers’ actual strength, since many their 10 wins came against under-performers in the SEC East.  Can the remaining personnel for the Buckeyes overcome that narrow margin?

No. 22 Clemson (8-4) vs Kentucky (7-5) in the Gator Bowl, Dec. 29, 12:00 PM ESPN

Sure, Clemson has a decent record, but the ACC proved weak this year.  Yes, Kentucky took its fair share of lumps, but they did so in the SEC.  Do not be surprised if the Wildcats overcome the Tiger’s 5.5 point favoring margin.

No. 16 Notre Dame (9-3) vs No. 19 Oregon State (8-4) in the Sun Bowl, Dec. 29, 2:00 PM CBS

In a rematch of the 2000-’01 Fiesta Bowl (another intriguing coaching matchup that pitted Bob Davie against Dennis Erickson), this time a blowout in Oregon State’s favor is not likely, as Notre Dame is favored by 6.5 points.  But this game also pits Marcus Freeman, who has led the Irish to a respectable 9-3 year, against Trent Bray, whose team has performed brilliantly by Oregon State standards.  Not only does this double as an intriguing coaching matchup, but one where the strength of the Pac-12 could be a bigger factor than the oddsmakers have initially considered.

Offensive Explosions:

No. 12 Oklahoma (10-2) vs No. 14 Arizona (9-3) in the Alamo Bowl, Dec. 28, 9:15 ESPN

When was the last time we saw a boring Alamo Bowl?  Surely this one is likely to be anything but that.  Oddsmakers give the over-under for this game at 62.5.  On one side of the ball, this is Arizona squad is the strongest it has been since they beat Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl 25 years ago.  On the other side is the only team that [barely] took down a tough Texas team.  Then again, the Sooners also lost twice to weaker competition.  Regardless, their ceiling is/was sky-high.  But perhaps not anymore, since their QB, Dillon Gabriel, is now transferring to Oregon.  Perhaps that accounts for the Wildcats being favored by three points.  After, they have more than held their own in the Pac-12, which in turn has been at its strongest in recent memory.

Kansas (8-4) vs UNLV (9-4) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, Dec. 26, 9:00 PM ESPN

Yes, UNLV has played light years better this season than their typical annual performance.  But Kansas has likewise played far more strongly then their respective typical performance, and against stiffer competition.  Thus, the Jayhawks are favored by 12.5 points.  One of two things could happen;  either Kansas barely covers the spread, or, their superior line play truly takes over in the second half, leading to a gradual blowout.  The over-under is 64.5, one of the highest of the bowl season, so expect some fireworks.

Georgia Tech (6-6) vs UCF (6-6) in the Gasparilla Bowl, Dec. 22, 6:30 PM ESPN

This game has the highest over-under of them all at 66.5, with UCF favored by 4.5 points.  This is another example of two mediocre teams, when pitted against each other, giving fans a good game.

Defensive Struggles:

No. 17 Iowa (10-3) vs No. 21 Tennessee (21) in the Citrus Bowl, Jan. 1, 1:00 ABC

Once again Tennessee plays in their winter home (according to Steve Spurrier), this time against Iowa.  The latter has made a name for itself with a stringy defense with hardly any offense.  Perhaps this accounts for one of the lowest over-unders of this bowl season at only 36.5.  The intriguing question becomes, can a mediocre SEC offense overcome what is considered a strong defense by B1G standards?  Conversely, how much of mismatch occurs between a mediocre SEC defense and a pitiful B1G offense?  That latter point likely accounts for why the Vols are favored by 8.5 points.  That said, a nice bonus is the intriguing coaching matchup between Josh Heupel and Kirk Ferentz.

Great Games no one is Talking About:

California (6-6) vs Texas Tech (6-6) in the Independence Bowl, Dec. 16, 9:15 ESPN

The Independence Bowl is one of those reliable bowls that almost always delivers with a good bowl game.  While traditionally a late December bowl game, this time they moved it up to nine days before Christmas.  Regardless, when two mediocre teams get together, sometimes a great game happens.  The Red Raiders are favored by only 3.5 points, so on paper, this game might deliver, too.

Georgia State (6-6) vs Utah State (6-6) in the Idaho Potato Bowl, Dec. 23, 3:30 PM ESPN

Speaking of close games going either way, the Panthers will certainly be out of their element playing in Boise, Idaho in late December, but Aggies should feel right at home in those Nordic climes.  The latter factor might account for Utah State’s slight favoring by 1.5, but with an over-under at 62.5, hello potential offensive explosion despite the cold!

Miami (FL) (7-5) vs Rutgers (6-6) in the Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 28, 2:15 PM ESPN

Perhaps the only reason that the Hurricanes are favored by only 1.5 points is because they are not used to playing in chilly NYC winter weather.

Utah (8-4) vs Northwestern (7-5) in the Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 23, 7:30 PM ABC

In what looks like a bargain-basement Rose Bowl (Pac-12 vs B1G), this game could deliver good value nonetheless, if only for the wrong reasons.  Utah started off strongly but weakened with injuries, while all of us gave up Northwestern for dead earlier this year, only to see the Wildcats surge down the stretch.  That Utah is favored by slightly less than a touchdown is a testament to how much Northwestern has improved throughout the season.

No. 18 NC State (9-3) vs No. 25 Kansas State (8-4) in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, Dec. 28, 5:45 PM ESPN

Yes, like the 68 Ventures Bowl, the Pop-Tarts Bowl is actually a thing (played in Orlando, Fla., FYI).  The oddsmakers favor Kansas State by three points, implying a close game throughout.  The tenacity of both squads assures the reader that it will be hard-fought throughout as well.

Think There is Enough Red and Black?

Arkansas State (6-6) vs Northern Illinois (6-6) in the Camellia Bowl, Dec. 23, 12:00 PM ESPN

The Red Wolves are favored by only 1, with an over-under of 53.5.  This is a game that could go either way, and stay close throughout regulation.

Intriguing Coaching Matchups:  

James Franklin of No. 10 Penn State (10-2) vs Lane Kiffin of No. 11 Ole Miss (10-2) in the Peach Bowl

Dec. 30, 12:00 PM ESPN

The contrasting styles of these respective coaches notwithstanding, what adds to the intrigue is that Franklin himself used to coach in the SEC, leading Vanderbilt to successes undreamed of in the modern era of college football.  On the other side of the ball, Kiffin has led Ole Miss to a solid season, albeit one with an inexplicable loss to Texas Tech early in the season.  Perhaps it is Penn State’s consistency that has led the oddsmakers to favor the Nittany Lions in this matchup by 3.5 points.

Jeff Brohm of No. 15 Louisville (10-3) vs Lincoln Riley of USC (7-5) in the Holiday Bowl

Dec. 27, 8:00 PM FOX

Jeff Brohm has certainly made a smash debut in his first year at his alma mater, leading the Cardinals to their first ACC championship game.  He faces off against Lincoln Riley, an offensive mastermind who nevertheless has not properly addressed his issues on defense.  Oddly enough, even with an underperforming offense, Louisville is still favored by 7.5 points, which leads us to another question:  is USC’s defense truly that bad?

Jerry Kill of New Mexico State (10-4) vs Jeff Tedford of Fresno State (8-4) in the New Mexico Bowl

Dec. 16, 6:00 PM ESPN

Jerry Kill has led the Aggies to some amazing, memorable wins this season, and to a rare (for the program) bowl game, one where they are practically on home turf.  Meanwhile, Jeff Tedford has brought his unique offensive philosophy into Fresno to help revitalize the Bulldogs.  This could likewise be a great game no one is talking about.

Luke Fickell of Wisconsin (7-5) vs Brian Kelly of No. 13 LSU (9-3) in the ReliaQuest Bowl

Jan. 1, 12:00 PM ESPN

It’s a good thing this is an intriguing coaching matchup, because, despite both teams underperforming this year (within the context of their respective capacities, that is), on paper, this game is mismatch.  Yes, the last time these two met up was on Sept. 3 of 2016, and the Badgers won that one, 16-14.  But these teams are different now.  Whereas the Badgers are not as strong as there were then, the Tigers, under Kelly, could be, in time, poised for another championship run.  These current trajectories add up to the logic behind LSU being favored by 8.5 points.  That aside, what is even more intriguing than the coaching matchup is the pitting of the fan bases.  Both sets of fans are the most obnoxious in their respective conferences, so it’s always fun to see them bounce off each other in a game like this!

What Could Have Been

Texas A&M (7-5) vs No. 20 Oklahoma State (9-4) in the Texas Bowl, Dec. 27, 5:30 PM ESPN

If the powers that be at Texas A&M did ax Jimbo Fisher so soon, we could have had one of the most intriguing, entertaining coaching matchups of the season, what with Mike Gundy on the other side of the ball.  As things now stand, the Aggies are still favored by two points, which also makes it a great game no one is talking about.

North Carolina (8-4) vs West Virginia (8-4) in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, Dec. 27, 5:30 PM ESPN

Speaking of what could have been, remember when North Carolina started out as a top-ten team?  Seems like the might have sadly fallen.  Now they have to settle to play in their own backyard, and yet, West Virginia is still favored by 6.5 points.

Why Are They Playing?

South Alabama (6-6) vs Eastern Michigan (6-6) in the 68 Ventures Bowl (no, really)

Dec. 23, 7:00 PM ESPN

Looks like a rather even matchup on the surface…until you find out that South Alabama is favored by 15.5.

UTSA (8-4) vs Marshall (6-6) in the Frisco Bowl, Dec. 19 9:00 PM ESPN

The Roadrunners are favored by 12 in this matchup.  It might take a monumental effort on Marshall’s part, should UTSA show up in this game staged in the fourth-largest city within the fourth-largest metropolitan area in the country.

Ohio (10-2) vs Georgia Southern (6-6) in the Myrtle Beach Bowl, Dec. 16, 11:00 AM ESPN

This game simply has mismatch (in the Bobcats’ favor) written all over it.

They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?

Tulane (11-2) vs Virginia Tech (6-6) in the Military Bowl, Dec. 27, 2:00 PM ESPN

So let us get this straight:  Tulane has an 11-2 season, and has a team almost as strong as the one that went undefeated in 1998, and yet:  Virginia Tech, who was lucky to even qualify for a bowl game this year, is still favored by 7.5 points?  To add insult to injury, let us not forget that the ACC is particularly weak with year.  Is the American Athletic Conference that much weaker still?

No. 24 SMU (11-2) vs Boston College (6-6) in the Fenway Bowl, Dec. 28, 11:00 AM ESPN

In another head-scratcher, SMU (also in the AAC), who is ranked, plays BC (also in the AAC), in what is the latter’s home turf, in chilly New England winter weather, and yet the Mustangs are still favored by 11 points. 

Bowling Green (7-5) vs Minnesota (5-7) in the Quick Lane Bowl, Dec. 26, 2:00 PM ESPN

To quote the great Yogi Berra, “It’s déjà vu all over again”.  These same two teams, with the same respective records, played each other in this very same bowl game eight years ago.  I can hear FOX Sports’ Colin Cowherd mock this matchup and laugh at the irony of it all at the same time.